Signal and strategy of PM’s traditional visit to Indonesia as Anthony Albanese, Penny Wong visit Jakarta

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will continue a long-established tradition to make Indonesia the first port-of-call of his new term this week, but the visit far exceeds symbolism as China and Russia beef up their own strategic ties with Jakarta.

A bilateral meeting on Thursday with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto cements Canberra’s view of its influential neighbour as a linchpin of Australian foreign and security policy.

But while Jakarta is favourably inclined towards Australia, the historically non-aligned nation must consider how to protect its own interests in a fluctuating geo-strategic environment, and it’s not a relationship Canberra can ever take for granted.

Mr Albanese, who is expected to push for deeper trade and investment ties and a step-up in joint military exercises, will also be aiming to solidify an already warm personal relationship with the new Indonesian President.

A glimpse of their blossoming friendship was revealed in a video released by the President’s office as he received a phone call from Mr Albanese shortly after Labor’s election win.

In the short clip, Mr Prabowo praised his “great victory”, saying he was “so happy” to see Mr Albanese returned to office.

“Thank you, my friend,” replied a jovial Mr Albanese, laughing as he added he had “a request for you, and I want you to say yes”.

That request was for Indonesia to host his first overseas trip to send a message about the “unbreakable bond” between the two nations.

Mr Albanese is known internationally for his collaborative, personal style, but the strength of his wording was clear.

President Prabowo, a former general and defence minister who is also being courted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s leader Xi Jinping, is a strategic partner that Australia needs to have on side.

“Especially on strategic questions, it’s important to have a leader level dialogue now,” said Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute.

“And so that’s really Albanese’s task to establish the kind of relationship where, when something happens, and we want to talk to Indonesia about it, he can easily get on the phone for a frank conversation.

The significant gesture of travelling first to Indonesia has not been lost on Jakarta.

“It shows the strategic closeness of both countries,” Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Rolliansyah “Roy” Soemirat said, adding that the leaders’ meeting would address food and energy resilience and trade, according to the Jakarta Post.

It will also be a chance to draw a line under the awkward moment Mr Prabowo was dragged into Australian electoral politics when then Opposition Leader Peter Dutton wrongly claimed the president had confirmed a Russian request to station warplanes at an Indonesian air base.

No foreign nation has permanent access to an Indonesian military base, although the details of the Russian bid, first reported in defence journal Janes remain murky.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who will accompany the Prime Minister, stressed on Wednesday that “respect matters” — a message that will resonate well in Indonesia and across Southeast Asia.

Addressing the Russia question, Senator Wong acknowledged that Indonesia had “historically had a relationship with Russia for decades,” and that Australia’s job was to focus on its own ties, in particular to increase economic engagement.

“Importantly, we have signed the first defence agreement with Indonesia that an Australian Government has ever had. That matters,” she said, in a nod to a treaty-level deal last year to green light more complex joint military drills and cooperation on maritime security and counter-terrorism operations.

But Russia and China are also flirting with Indonesia’s affections, with a view to establishing a greater regional foothold.

China and Indonesia in April held their first joint meeting between foreign and defence ministers under a new format also intended to boost military cooperation, announcing their own joint military exercises later this year.

And as Australia works rapidly to expand its defence cooperation with Indonesia, Russia is eyeing the same goal, holding joint naval drills in the Java Sea in November, and hosting Mr Prabowo as defence minister in Moscow last July.

The prospect of Indonesia granting even rotational access to Russia assets, putting Australian and US military bases within range of enhanced surveillance tactics and in the crosshairs of long-range bombers, sends a chill through Canberra.

Examples of new defence and security cooperation with China and Russia were setting a “concerning trend” from Australia’s perspective, said Lowy’s Ms Patton.

“He’s well-disposed to Australia, and you can see that in the warmth of the phone call. But he’s also well disposed to other leaders as well. We can’t expect that we will have any kind of special treatment.”

While the US and Australia remain Indonesia’s most important security partners, the unpredictability of US foreign policy in the Trump era and the destructive impact of trade tariffs gives fresh impetus for Australia to act.

Australia would want to steer clear of past perceptions of acting as “deputy sheriff” to the United States, said Ms Patton.

And as China bolsters its own influence through economic investment, this year welcoming Indonesia into the BRICS-group, pressure builds on Australia to offer an alternative to Jakarta’s economic needs.

When President-elect Prabowo signed the defence pact last August, he made his country’s priorities clear.

“We would like to see more Australian participation in our economy,” he said, asking for help with agriculture, food security, and counter-narcotics.

As Russia and China ramp up their regional charm offensive and the Trump White House pursues its “America First” agenda, Mr Albanese’s trip to Indonesia presents a timely moment to step into the gap.