Solomon Islands: Albanese Government notches solid wins in the Pacific but storms may be ahead

The Albanese Government has scored a series of goals in the Pacific this year, but storms may still lie ahead as Australia tries to secure its own backyard in the face of China’s growing clout.

Canberra on Friday announced a $190 million gift to the Solomon Islands to boost its police force capacity – the fourth major cooperation deal with a Pacific Island nation in 2024 as it reasserts Australia across the region as the “security partner of choice.”

But unlike the earlier pacts with Papua New Guinea, Nauru and Tuvalu, experts say the latest deal does not overtly contain an exclusivity clause that would lock China out of Honiara’s security space, leaving latitude for an increased Chinese presence there.

Uncertainty about an incoming Trump Indo-Pacific policy and the distractions of escalating turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine also means Canberra will be navigating choppy waters in its near neighbourhood for the foreseeable future.

The new deal would grow the size and capability of the Solomons’ force and create a police training centre in Honiara, where 14 Chinese law enforcement instructors are already operating.

Asked on Friday if the agreement contained any obligation on Honiara to curtail or break off its cooperation with the Chinese police, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not give a direct answer.

“The Solomon Islands, of course, is a sovereign nation. They have some measures in place, and we expect that to continue,” he told reporters in Canberra.

Blake Johnson, an analyst at the Australian Security Policy Institute, called the deal a “massive win” for Honiara which would reap the benefits without providing any guarantees.

“(The deal) doesn’t have the veto powers that are included in other agreements” with Pacific nations, he said.

“Which means if China decides that it wants to make further offers and tries to increase its support, there’s probably still wiggle room to include that without necessarily having to consult at great lengths with Australia.”

It showed the Solomons was “successfully navigating its own path in the Pacific” during unprecedented geopolitical competition where partners were willing to offer support. “They’ve found a way that works for them to capitalise on that,” said Mr Johnson.

Mihai Sora, director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, called the agreement “the least strategically significant win” out of Australia’s Pacific deals this year as Honiara had not committed to scaling back China’s parallel police training program.

“It is an achievement for Australia, but all it really does is keep us in the game,” he said.

“The Solomon Islands is a lot further down the path of accommodating China’s strategic intent … China is a lot more embedded in its political and security and economic networks,” he said.

The country’s Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele did not have the scope to walk back gains that Beijing made under the last government, which switched its formal diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China in 2019.

“The Solomon Islands relies on China as its core trading partner. It relies on Chinese businesses to manage the retail sector, consumer goods sector, most of its resources go to China, and China has been providing a lot of support directly to MPs through constituency development funds,” he said.

“They found themselves in a position where the government of the day does depend on China’s good graces, and that was, of course, China’s plan.”

Canberra has been chasing new bilateral security deals with its Pacific Island neighbours since it was blindsided by a secretive security pact between Beijing and Honiara in 2022 that triggered fears China was planning to establish a military base to gain a strategic foothold there.

The agreement gave ammunition to the Labor Party, then in opposition, who slammed the Morrison Government for overseeing the worst foreign policy failure in the Pacific since World War II.

The Albanese Government has since made progress in bolstering Australia’s network across pivotal points in the region as its US ally has intensified competition with China.

“Today is another very good day in relations between Australia and our Pacific family,” said Mr Albanese on Friday, announcing “a significant investment” in the Solomons’ police force “to ensure that they can continue to take primary responsibility for security.”

In a joint statement, Mr Albanese and Mr Manele said the financial package would build an enduring security package that would reduce reliance on external partners.

Peter Kenilorea, the leader of the Solomons’ independent MPs, who has long been outspoken about the risks of the Chinese Communist Party’s influence on the nation, welcomed a new policing deal that “shows a clear partnership with Australia on security and policing issues.”

He told The Nightly he was not surprised there appeared to be no exclusivity aspect to security cooperation given the pact that already existed with China.

But he added: “The big difference I see is that with this latest deal, there are some real deliverables for building the capacity of Royal Solomon Islands Police Force.”

Canberra has gotten creative this year in securing its strategic interests, kicking off with a climate migration deal with Tuvalu requiring it to “mutually agree” on any security arrangements with other countries.

This month, an offer to Nauru to boost its banking and infrastructure sectors gave Canberra a veto over critical security decisions, and a $600m investment in Papua New Guinea’s rugby league team contained a similar escape clause guaranteeing no breach of “strategic trust.”

But the pursuit of closer ties with Kiribati in the North Pacific remains elusive.

“The government there makes it very difficult for Australian counterparts to engage, to have access,” said Mr Sora.

“They quite rightly would perceive that Australia would be interested in lobbying for a stronger Australian presence and a smaller Chinese presence, and they’re just not interested in hearing that message.”

For Washington, Kiribati’s proximity to regional hot spots like Taiwan and the South China Sea, raises its strategic value.

But US policy in the Pacific is also now entering another period of uncertainty as President Donald Trump takes the reins.

His administration was expected continue to direct military resources to the region to maintain a balance of power but was less likely to offer the economic and climate change support Pacific nations really wanted, opening an opportunity for China, said Mr Sora.

After some “solid wins”, Canberra now faced “a real test of Australian diplomacy” to “formalise its strategic access to the region in a way that seeks to box China out, and how that sits alongside what Pacific countries want, which is typically more economic ties with China and with Australia.”