Can Sussan Ley survive pre-Christmas killing season in Canberra?

If Sussan Ley can stare down her party rivals in Canberra next week, she’s likely to avoid a very unwelcome political milestone by ensuring Alexander Downer keeps his record as the shortest serving Liberal leader ever.

The besieged Opposition Leader needs to keep her job until January 20 to eclipse the former Foreign Minister’s forgettable tenure of eight months and seven days, which ended when John Howard returned to the Liberal leadership for a second time in January 1995.

For the next decade both men would go on to dominate the political landscape; Downer as Australia’s longest-serving foreign minister, and Howard as the country’s second-longest-serving PM

Ley’s immediate goals however are much more modest; limping through next week’s final parliamentary sitting of the year will in theory allow her to stay Opposition leader until Parliament returns in February, following the long annual summer break.

But around the country the signs are not good if you’re an opposition leader from the conservative side of politics, as the traditional pre-Christmas “political killing season” gets underway.

In the space of a fortnight or so it’s not impossible to anticipate that we will see the defeat of the ACT Liberal Leader and deputy, NSW Nationals leader, Victorian Liberal leader, NSW Liberal leader, and the Federal Liberal leader.

Arguably the country’s worst performing political party, the Canberra Liberals, last week changed leaders yet again as they face the prospect of losing an eighth straight ACT election when the capital is due to go to the polls in 2028.

Last Monday Canberra Liberals leader Leanne Castley and her deputy Jeremy Hanson resigned, making way for former radio announcer and ACT Speaker Mark Parton to take on the thankless role of opposition leader in a Labor dominated city.

This week the Victorian Liberals dumped their leader Brad Battin a year out from the State’s next scheduled election where they are fighting to finally end Labor’s grip on power which began back in 2014.

First-term MP Jess Wilson, a former staffer to ex-Federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg, is also the first woman to lead the Victorian Liberals and would become the state’s first popularly elected female premier if she can win the November 2026 election.

In NSW the conservative side of politics is also in a state of upheaval after the Nationals leader resigned on Monday, and Coffs Harbour MP Gurmesh Singh was elected unopposed as his replacement.

For now NSW Liberals leader Mark Speakman is the longest serving Liberal opposition leader in the country, but his position is increasingly uncertain as speculation mounts of a challenge from shadow attorney-general Alister Henskens or shadow health minister Kellie Sloane.

Elsewhere across Australia the political fortunes for the conservative side of politics are not bright, with Labor in power in all jurisdictions except for Tasmania, Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Last year County Liberal Party leader Lia Finocciaro ended eight years of Labor rule in the Northern Territory when she won a majority of seats against former chief minister Eva Lawler.

Tasmania, traditionally considered a Labor stronghold, is now home to Australia’s longest serving current Liberal government, where the party has held power since 2014 under the leadership of three separate Premiers.

At the other end of the country in Queensland the Liberal National Party returned to power in October 2024 following more than a decade in the wilderness which began in 2015 when Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk swept to power in a stunning 2015 victory.

In South Australia, Premier Peter Malinauskas is one of the most popular political leaders in the country and the charismatic figure is also touted by many in his party as a possible future Labor Prime Minister.

His opponent, Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia has been in the job since the resignation of his predecessor David Speirs in August last year, making him Australia’s second current longest serving Liberal Opposition leader.

In the West former TV personality and Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas could soon lay claim to being the second longest serving current Liberal opposition leader in the country (if his NSW counterpart is dumped), despite only taking the job in March this year.

Despite the doom and gloom for the Liberal party nationally, it is worth remembering that back in 2007 when Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister the conservative side of politics did not hold power in any Australian parliament.

Between 2007 and 2010 the federal Liberal Party had three leaders, before enjoying a huge swing towards it at the 2010 poll, forcing Labor into a minority, before sweeping to office in a landslide in 2013.

While Ley is now considered very unlikely to be given the chance to take her party to the next Federal election, Labor hard heads are keen to remind their newer colleagues that losing office at the next contest is not impossible.