Coalition dips to historic low, One Nation gains more support, as key by-election looms
One Nation has overtaken the Coalition for the first time in a major poll, spelling woes for the Liberal leader who rolled his predecessor after poor polling.
Angus Taylor has overseen a Coalition plunge to its lowest vote despite knifing former leader Sussan Ley over poor polling in the hopes of turning the ship around.
One Nation gained a point to poll at 24 per cent while the Coalition dropped a point to 22 per cent in Resolve Political Monitor polling published in Nine newspapers on Sunday.
It marks the first time the coalition has dropped below One Nation in the monitor, although other polls have put its primary vote in the teens and One Nation’s in the high 20s.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.Labor’s primary vote was 29 per cent, down two points since February - the first time it has dipped below 30 per cent since March 2025.
The Greens registered a one-point increase to 12 per cent, and independents were up the same amount to eight per cent.
Half of voters polled indicated they would support a minor party or independent over a major party for the first time in the monitor’s history.
Anthony Albanese (35 per cent) leads Mr Taylor (31 per cent) as preferred prime minister, with the rest undecided.
The Prime Minister is significantly more popular than the Liberal leader with voters younger than 34 (40 to 22 per cent), while Mr Taylor leads Mr Albanese among those older than 55 (41 to 33 per cent).
Mr Taylor is set to launch the Liberals’ campaign for the May 9 by-election in the regional NSW seat of Farrer, triggered by the resignation of Ms Ley after her ousting.
The by-election is shaping up as the first major challenge for both Mr Taylor and nascent Nationals leader Matt Canavan as the coalition parties contend with a surging One Nation.
The Liberals on Sunday pre-selected Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the seat.
Popular progressive independent Michelle Milthorpe is also threatening the major parties after she took a chunk out of Ms Ley’s margin at the 2025 federal election.
