AARON PATRICK: In an election he is losing, Russia’s aggression will allow Peter Dutton to show who he is

Sometimes in politics when you take a stand on principle, events reward you.

Tuesday’s revelation that the Federal Government may have learned of Russia’s request for an air force base in Indonesia from the internet gives Liberal leader Peter Dutton the opening his losing campaign desperately needs.

A former defence minister, Mr Dutton was an immediate, consistent and trenchant critic of Russian’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

While some on the right in Australia and overseas, including Donald Trump, expressed sympathy for Vladimir Putin’s complaints about NATO expansionism, Mr Dutton warned Russia was a threat to the liberal world order.

That was before anyone in Australian public life imagined Russian might want to place bombers within range of Darwin.

Exploiting incompetence

Even if Indonesia refuses to grant the Russians an air base -- their military cooperation dates almost to independence in 1949 -- the request is such a hostile act that it may, at least temporarily, capture the election campaign.

Normally, crises play to the government’s strengths. Unlike the opposition, which is confined to words, ministers are capable of action.

In this case, the government’s apparent failure to know more about what is happening in Jakarta than a military trade journal in London is an example of incompetence that Mr Dutton can and will exploit.

“Obviously,” Mr Dutton said Tuesday, “surely they must have known about this before it’s been made public.”

This situation -- a potential physical threat to mainland Australia -- is why intelligence agencies were given $2 billion this year. It is the reason Australian Signals Directorate and Australian Secret Intelligence Service exist. It is why defence attaches are assigned to every significant diplomatic outpost.

Our war too

Australia is, indirectly, a participant in the Ukraine war. Defence Minister Richard Marles has overseen $1.3 billion of military aid to Ukraine, including M1 Abrams tanks the army is replacing with newer models.

Hundreds of Australians have been placed on Russian sanctions lists, including journalists such as myself.

The Russian air force has shown it is a killing machine that does not distinguish between military and civilian targets.

Russian aggression is one part of Australia’s security challenge. China is a Russian ally, and on Monday two Chinese prisoners-of-war were displayed by the military in Kiev.

This second security surprise for the government, which was alerted of a February Chinese navy exercise in the Tasman Sea by Virgin Australia, highlights that Australia is not so far from powerful forces that some serious analysts and historians fear could shift from a trade war to a physical one.

Bribe-a-thon

Mr Dutton, participating in what has become a bribe-a-thon campaign, now has an opportunity to explain to a disengaged electorate one of the central distinctions with his opponent.

The Liberal leader is a true foreign affairs hawk. He regards authoritarian states such as China and Russia as threats to Australian security and, in the long term, prosperity.

If expansionist Russia wants a permanent military presence closer to Australian than Bali, then Australians entire perceptions of their regional security may change -- showing Mr Dutton has the most valuable trait a leader can possess: prescience.