CAITLYN RINTOUL: Anthony Albanese heads into the Easter campaign cocky but will downtime knock his momentum?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will head into the Easter long weekend buoyed by improving poll numbers and growing campaign confidence.

But with a week of national downtime ahead, can his momentum be maintained?

The break presents a rare window to take stock — but it could also allow the Coalition an opportunity to reset.

With Anzac Day falling just days after Easter, the coming stretch is expected to be a relatively subdued period in the campaign — even as pre-polling begins and parties shift focus to early voters.

But with the campaign entering its final fortnight — can the PM afford to let his tempo drop too far? Or is it crucial he maintains a steady drumbeat of policy messaging to lock in support, especially with prepolling now underway?

So far, the early stages of the campaign suggest a gradual shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour.

But Monash University politics expert Dr Zareh Ghazarian said despite Labor’s current advantage, the election is far from decided.

He said the final stretch is critical, especially as early voting begins, with up to half of electors expected to vote before election day.

Dr Ghazarian said it was likely Labor will focus on stability, healthcare, and managing economic uncertainty, while the Coalition will continue to push their “Are you better off than three years ago?” question to voters.

Labor insiders say the resounding message through their camps is that no win is assured and every seat remains a contest.

While not taking any seat for granted, the campaign is considered in good shape with strong momentum and a consensus the leader has been performing well day-in, day-out at press conferences, as well as the first two debates.

It marks a contrast from Mr Albanese’s awkward 2022 campaign experience, where he at times fumbled in his first real test as a leader.

His confidence under consistent media pressure was on show on Thursday morning where maintained firm control of the press pack, steering it on his terms.

He stuck to key talking points, selectively addressed questions, and deftly handed over more detailed policy matters to his Treasurer when needed.

One insider joked that beyond stepping off stage, the leader hasn’t put a foot wrong — referring to his slip off stage on April 3 during a NSW campaign event — helped by three years of preparation and a solid, supportive frontbench as a key advantage.

Both parties say they’re keeping their campaign schedules fluid.

But Australian Studies Institute Professor Mark Kenny said the leaders’ actions in the next week will speak louder than words.

He said both parties would be rushing to undertake tracking polling and campaign movements. The final weeks will signal where parties believe they are vulnerable and what messages are cutting through in marginal seats.

“If you see this pattern where they’re really sandbagging, as we say, their own seats, you know that that’s because there’s real danger of going seriously backwards,” he said.

Prof Kenny said the Easter break would leave less than two weeks of campaigning by the time everyday Australians emerged from their chocolate-induced coma and turned back into the news.

But he said parties would be working in the background, including internal recalibration of messaging and strategy ahead of the campaign’s final stretch.

Leaning into the Easter puns, Prof Kenny said the holiday could offer both camps a breather — but it should be a “good time for resurrection” for Mr Dutton, who needs to “leap forward” in the polls.

“Dutton would be looking for a big game changer here. He is in the need of one to make some sort of serious leap forward,” he said.

Prof Kenny said the Labor camp was estimating Mr Dutton is going to run out of policy to talk about.

He said Mr Dutton’s team had appeared to maintain party unity in the past three years but at the cost of internal policy development— leaving them “light on for a story to tell”.

“The latest the election could have been was May of 2025, and that’s when the election is. And yet, still, the opposition seems to have been surprised by the election,” he said.

He said Labor, however, were right to be conscious of complacency — recalling the 2019 election when the Coalition defied expectations again what had seemed to be an unshakeable Bill Shorten.

“I think there is an increasing confidence in Labor that they are performing better than the opposition,” he said.

“They’ve made fewer mistakes have been sort of more cogent and I think organised in their election campaign process... But there is a risk here, a big risk in getting too confident. I think that can backfire.

“I don’t discount the possibility of of the government losing this election.

“I know that the momentum is apparently moving in one way but like I say, just think about 2019.”

Whether they opt to rest or ramp up their campaign presence, Dr Ghazarian said it was almost certain they’ll lean into the usual Easter-themed photo opportunities that have become a political staple.

“There will be many, many community centres visited. I expect some sort of religious events as well in the mix,” he said.

“I would expect this Easter period to also be an opportunity for the leaders to present themselves as a relatable individual, as a member of the community.

“They’ve been in suits, they’ve been in debates, they’ve been in traditional campaign territory but this weekend will be an opportunity to be seen as a bit more relaxed, a bit more relatable.

“We’ve sort of seen glimpses of it during the campaign but this weekend is that perfect opportunity.”

But as soon as the weekend was over both leaders are expected to come out firing on Tuesday, when the third leaders debate will be held.

After two relatively restrained showdowns at the Sky News People’s Forum and ABC debates, pressure is mounting on both to land clearer blows in what could be a decisive face-to-face.

Dr Ghazarian said debates carry high risk with limited upside, adding while neither had made major gaffes, a single fumble could shape public perception.

Prof Kenny said he was surprised Mr Albanese would agree to a third debate.

“There are higher stakes for a prime minister in these debates than there is for an opposition leader,” he said.

Prof. Kenny said the new risk that leaders debate carried in 2025 was the ability for short sections to be snippet up and made viral online.

He said while not all voters will watch it in real-time, any gaffe could be disseminated without context in the days or weeks after.

“Strangely, we’re in that realm now where a lot of what happens in the debates is not watched the first time around but it’s cut up and reparcelled into messages on social media.

“Voters may miss the primary broadcast of it, but they probably can’t escape the social media treatment of it later.”

However, the PM had come out of this week’s second leaders debate largely unscathed on Thursday.

He even brought up the performance, unprompted, at his press conference the following day, what he thought was a standout moments for Mr Dutton on the night — his fumbled response on climate change.

Given the Coalition lost climate-conscious electorates — particularly teal seats — at the last election, it could be an attack line he will stick to over the next week.

It also suggests the Prime Minister is looking to keep the pressure on, even during the holiday slowdown.

Dr Ghazarian said wedge issues could create internal tensions that distract from core messaging.

“The issue of climate change policy and energy policy is something that the Coalition has often been debating within the party,” Dr Ghazarian said.

“So it is a potential point that Labor may seek to exploit and to make the Coalition talk amongst itself, rather than talk about the policies they want to propose with the community.

“It could be a potential wedge issue that could distract the Coalition, and in doing so, allow some space for Labor to campaign.”

Negative gearing could also feature prominently in the coming week, with Labor working to fend off opposition accusations that it is planning policy changes behind closed doors.

Mr Albanese had also been quizzed in the debate over whether Treasury had modelled potential reform to negative gearing, opening the door for the issue to be thrust into the spotlight at the tail end of week three of campaigning.

Mr Dutton has already signalled a willingness to launch a scare campaign on the issue, mentioning it several times on Thursday.

Despite the headwinds facing the Coalition, the next week isn’t without risk for Labor, according to experts.

Both Dr Ghazarian and Prof Kenny said any major gaffe, international event or sign of overconfidence could undercut Mr Albanese’s lead.

It comes as security may be a big concern for the leader too, with a noticeable uptick in attempted security breaches in recent weeks.

With several highly publicised appearances scheduled in the lead-up to Anzac Day — including the Nine debate on April 22 and at The West Australian’s Leadership Matters event on April 24 — security is expected to be on heightened alert.