Federal election 2025: Independent Kate Chaney and Liberal candidate Tom White predict close call in Curtin

Kate Chaney and her Liberal rival Tom White are predicting a tight contest in the fight for Curtin, saying the result may not be known tonight, expecting potentially just a few hundred votes separating the two.

Curtin, won by Teal MP Ms Chaney in 2022, is regarded as a barometer for how Peter Dutton and the Liberals perform today.

The Opposition leader openly admitted throughout the campaign it was very unlikely he would emerge Prime Minister tonight if the conservatives could not win back the one-time conservative fortress.

Ms Chaney started the day in West Leederville, accompanied by her husband Bill Keane and children George, Fred and Olive.

For her son George, it was his first time voting in a Federal election.

Mr White voted in Claremont, arriving at Freshwater Bay Primary School where his twin brother Nick and parents were waiting for him, handing out how-to-vote cards.

It was obvious from the long family embraces within both the Chaney and White camps, this had been an emotional journey for not just the candidates, but for their loved ones.

“I don’t think we’ll know the result tonight,” Ms Chaney told The West Australian.

“I think it’s going to be very close.”

Mr White agreed.

“I’ve been saying consistently that this is going to be an incredibly tight race,” he said.

“I am not willing to make any predictions, but I will say I think it will be very close.”

“Ms Chaney was as defiant as ever, fielding off questions of perhaps too close-relationships with the Greens and Labor during this campaign.

Ms Chaney, after casting her vote, said as an independent she hadn’t done deals with any political parties.

“The ridiculous attack ads and conspiracy theories that we see coming out in the media, just shows the level of desperation there is from the major parties,” she said.

“There is no man behind me pulling the strings. Not Anthony Albanese, not Simon Holmes a Court, not Peter Dutton.

“I am independent. I answer to the people of Curtin.”

With polling showing the likely outcome of today’s election is a minority government, it could well be Ms Chaney, other Teals and the Greens are cast in the role of kingmakers.

Ms Chaney denies it, but it is generally acknowledged she would help Mr Albanese, rather than Mr Dutton, form government if she retains her seats and her support is needed to form government.

Asked by The West Australian, whether she’d pick up the phone to Mr Albanese or Mr Dutton tonight if they called her for support, Ms Chaney answered: “I will wait until I see whether I’ve won my seat or not and see what happens across the country.

“I don’t think we will have results on that for a while.”

Mr White said it had become obvious during the campaign that Ms Chaney had a “degree of cosiness” with the Greens and Labor.

“There is clearly a high degree of cosiness between the Teal campaign, the Greens as well as Labor,” he said.

Asked whether he believed a deal had already been struck between Ms Chaney and Labor for her support in the event of a minority government, Mr White said: “It’s reasonable to ask that question, but who knows”.

“Certainly I have been told (there has been).”

Curtin, up until the 2022 election, was considered a safe Liberal seat.

Former deputy Liberal leader and foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop had held the seat until her retirement from politics.

Her successor Celia Hammond lost the seat to Ms Chaney three years ago.

About $3 million has been spent by the Chaney-White camps in the fierce battle.

Ms Chaney, as she was in 2022, has been financially supported by Climate 200.

Cost-of-living and housing affordability have been the main focus on voters, but Anthony Albanese’s decision to ban live sheep exports in 2028 and his refusal to yet approve the extension of the north west shelf gas operation have also been hot topics in Curtin.

Ms Chaney initially supported the live sheep ban, before changing her mind and opposing it.

And her messaging around Woodside’s application for a 45-year-extension to its North West shelf operation has also been confusing - although she told The West Australian during the campaign she was leaning towards supporting it as long as tough conditions were imposed.

Mr White opposed the ban on live sheep exports, with Mr Dutton promising to lift the ban if elected.

Mr White also supports the Woodside licence extension, which Mr Dutton has pledged to make a decision on within 30 days of coming to government.