ELLEN RANSLEY: Anthony Albanese’s overconfidence could cost Labor the majority

Anthony Albanese is growing more and more confident by the day, but as polling day nears, the challenge for him is to heed the warning of the old proverb: “pride comes before the fall”.

On current trajectory it’s hard to see how Peter Dutton could win the election — although that could still change before May 3. But mathematically, the Prime Minister will need to leave nothing on the table if he wants to prevent Labor falling into minority government.

“I am asking for a majority Labor Government because I do think that it does provide the stability that in this uncertain time is a plus,” he pleaded on Thursday, reflecting on how Australia should “cherish” having majority governments.

Of course, just because Australians can, doesn’t mean they will. Labor won Government on its lowest-ever primary vote in 2022 as more votes went to third parties, such as the Greens and independents.

Recent polls tell us that hasn’t improved. If anything, third party candidates could pick up even more of the vote this time.

Having been asked about it dozens of times already, the PM became snarky when asked about potential preference deals with the Greens and assurances on negative gearing.

But the questions he snipped at on Wednesday are ones Australians will want answered. Yes, he brings policy and election commitments to the public forum every day, but the bookies still have a hung parliament as the most possible outcome.

If the PM is worried, he barely showed it this week. After beginning the week buoyed by a lift in the Newspoll, where Labor’s two party preferred lead extended to 52-48, he went on to win the Sky News debate.

He failed to convince 35 per cent of the voters who swung for Mr Dutton or the 21 who remain undecided, but in a largely uninspiring debate that failed to land any knockout blows, on numbers a win is a win.

With a pep in his step — and no sign of sea legs — his confidence was on full display at the back of a boat on Thursday, as the PM and the travelling press pack headed back to Cairns from a morning on Green Island.

In a spontaneous live cross with Sky News, the PM dipped into the Gen Z vernacular to declare it was “a vibe”. He was visibly relaxed as he drew parallels between the choppy waters he was physically travelling over, and the metaphorical ones he is attempting to lead Australia through.

Rough waters have threatened to derail the campaign this week, with Donald Trump causing market chaos and giving world leaders whiplash with his constant chopping and changing on tariffs.

Whether the PM’s same old lines about not using a “loudhailer” and opting for behind-the-scenes diplomacy to try and navigate through the chaos will cut it with voters remains to be seen.

But the revelation that Elon Musk is now tasked with reviewing the US submarine program could create a ripple.

Most of the week Mr Albanese tried to play it safe on comfortable territory — talking up Labor’s track record and election promises on Medicare, childcare, aged care, infrastructure, workplace relations, and the environment.

The long shadow Trump is casting puts national security in the spotlight. This could wind up tripping the PM in the next few weeks, given this is where Mr Dutton is strongest.

Focused first and foremost on winning the election, the electorates Mr Albanese visited this week said a lot about his three-part strategy this election: sandbag seats he’s in danger of losing, visit safe seats as part of his “Prime Minister for all” image, and go on the offensive.

His visit to the northern suburbs of McEwen this week, which Labor holds with just 3.7 per cent, falls into the first camp.

Mr Dutton has visited the electorate twice in the past two weeks, and the Coalition believes it has a strong chance of claiming the seat.

Pollsters have for months been saying the outer suburbs or Melbourne will be where this election is won or lost. Mr Albanese spent a day there this week

His visits to safe Labor seats of Sydney and Fraser, in Melbourne, don’t necessarily reflect concern. You could almost put these in the same camp as his visit to Longreach (where he toured a flood affected sheep farm) and last week’s visit to Bundaberg in Nationals-held Hinkler.

“One of the things about what I’ve done as Prime Minister is represent the whole country,” he said on Thursday, reflecting on the latter.

On the offense, he has the most potential to gain in Queensland where Labor holds just five of 30 seats.

Starting the week by making his $2.3 billion battery announcement in the Brisbane seat of Griffith was no accident.

Labor is in serious contention in two of the three city seats that turned Green in 2022. New internal polling this week in Mr Dutton’s own seat of Dickson has purportedly prompted a $130,000 campaign top up to support three-time contender Ali France, with a promise from the PM he’d “be back” to the Opposition Leader’s own backyard.

“If she gets the same swing she got in 2022, she will be sworn in as the member for Dickson. It’s Queensland’s most marginal seat, and we are taking it seriously,” Mr Albanese said on Thursday.

Mr Albanese’s decision to Queensland-ify his Coalition cuts scare campaign by invoking the ghost of Campbell Newman could also prove a winning strategy.

Leichhardt too could flip, given Liberal Warren Entsch is retiring again, and the last time he retired Labor won the seat.

The LNP candidate Jeremy Neal was thrust in the spotlight this week after some old tweets resurfaced, giving Labor further cause for optimism that former Cairns Taipan Matt Smith will deliver the Far North seat back to them on May 3.

In his almost hour-long press conference aside Smith on Thursday, there was an air about Mr Albanese that he could do what, just a few months ago, seemed unlikely — remain Prime Minister.

He finishes the week ahead of his opponent because again, he won more days.

But in a week where Trump again cast a long shadow over the campaign, Mr Albanese failed to offer a convincing enough argument that he has it covered, it’s just that Mr Dutton didn’t fare any better.

There are now 11 days until pre-polling begins.

People will tune out over the Easter long weekend. If Mr Albanese is to remain in the Lodge he will need to ensure the confidence he’s shown this week doesn’t cause him to trip.