Federal election 2025: Coalition nuclear and gas plan under fire ahead of Chris Bowen and Ted O’Brien debate

The coalition’s energy plan would result in thousands fewer jobs and tens of billions in foregone private investment, modelling shows as the major parties prepare to square off over their energy proposals.

Before the first election debate between Energy Minister Chris Bowen and opposition spokesman Ted O’Brien, the Electrical Trades Union has released analysis showing nearly 12,000 jobs building transmission lines would be lost if the coalition scrapped the Rewiring the Nation plan.

The analysis uses modelling conducted by Frontier Economics for the coalition, which includes 80 per cent less investment in transmission than under the energy market regulator’s Integrated System Plan.

The union’s national secretary Michael Wright said Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was planning a “jobs bloodbath” for the electrical industry.

“His own modelling contains cuts of 2000 jobs this year, rising to 4000 by 2027, and topping 5000 in 2028,” he said on Thursday.

“This deprives nearly 12,000 electrical workers, their communities and their families of a living across the country.”

The coalition says its nuclear plan will prevent the need to construct the vast transmission networks required by renewables.

Under their plan, renewable energy generation would be capped at 54 per cent, compared to the government’s target of 82 per cent by 2030.

Separate modelling released by the Clean Energy Council on Thursday found that would result in a reduction of at least $58 billion in private investment in clean energy.

That includes 16 gigawatts of foregone wind projects and 13 gigawatts of solar projects that would otherwise have been built.

Farmers would also miss out on $3.4 billion in payments for hosting renewable assets on their properties and $696 million in community contributions.

“These are real dollars for farmers, real dollars for country towns and real blue-collar jobs that pay Australians’ bills,” said the council’s chief executive Kane Thornton.

The coalition says it would grow the economy by pumping more gas into the market, lowering energy prices for households and industrial applications.

Mr Dutton unveiled modelling for its east coast gas reservation plan, promising a 15 per cent reduction in gas bills for industrial customers and an eight per cent decrease in wholesale electricity prices.

Households would see smaller savings of seven per cent for gas and three per cent for electricity.

Gas lobby group Australian Energy Producers has questioned the modelling, arguing the policy would introduce price controls that would inhibit gas production and lower supply.

Mr Bowen is sure to repeat this line of attack in his debate with Mr O’Brien at the National Press Club on Thursday.