Federal election 2025: Dutton, Coalition primary vote numbers near all-time low in new poll

The Coalition is on track to record its lowest share of votes at a federal election since the party’s inception, with Peter Dutton fast running out of time to salvage his chances of becoming prime minister.

The latest YouGov poll, provided to AAP, showed the coalition tied with Labor for first preferences after its primary vote fell to 33 per cent.

If the poll results were replicated at the May 3 election, the coalition would receive its lowest share of primary votes since the Liberal Party was formed in 1944.

YouGov’s director of public data Paul Smith said the opposition would need a miracle to be able to recover, with the election just two weeks away.

“This is a dramatic fall from the coalition’s position only a few weeks ago in February from being in the box seat to win the election,” he told AAP.

“It would take a historic turnaround for the coalition to win ... given voters are already receiving their postal votes and pre-poll starts on Tuesday.

“The coalition is running out of time.”

The poll showed Labor increasing its lead on a two-party preferred basis, with the government getting half a percentage point boost to be ahead 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

It’s Labor’s highest two-party preferred result for 18 months and almost a full point higher than its election-winning result in 2022.

Anthony Albanese has stabilised his lead as preferred prime minister over Peter Dutton, leading 48 per cent to 38 per cent.

While Mr Dutton has gained some ground in his net-satisfaction levels, rising from minus 15 to minus 10 since the previous week, he still trails Mr Albanese, who sits on minus six.

“The main driver of the coalition’s fall in primary votes is voters rejecting seeing Peter Dutton as prime minister,” Mr Smith said.

“It can be seen in the strong preference shown by men and outer-suburban voters for the prime minister over Peter Dutton.

“If Peter Dutton is rejected by outer-suburban voters and men, it’s game over for the coalition at the election.”

Mr Albanese leads Mr Dutton 49 per cent to 36 per cent in outer-metropolitan seats, with many of them being crucial mortgage belt electorates the opposition has been looking to win over on cost-of-living relief.

The prime minister is ahead 49 per cent to 40 per cent among male voters, while 47 per cent of women back Mr Albanese compared to 35 per cent for the opposition leader.

The poll comes as both parties prepare to put their campaigns briefly on hold for the Easter weekend.

The opposition will be hoping the break will provide a reset, with pre-poll voting set to begin after the four-day weekend.

The YouGov poll of 1506 voters was conducted between April 11 and 15, with a margin of error of 3.3 per cent.