Federal election 2025: ‘Nervous’ Labor shores up Victorian seats with heavy ad spending

Labor Party advertising is concentrated on protecting its suburban seats in Melbourne, suggesting Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s lower-petrol-prices campaign may be finding traction with working-class voters.

Google ad spending shows of the five seats to receive the most advertising by the ALP in the 30 days to April 23, four were in Victoria — and all held by the Labor Party.

Wills in Melbourne’s north received the most money: $102,150. The seat is under threat from the Greens, who are campaigning against the government’s position on the Israeli-Hamas war.

The ethnic Chinese-dominated seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s east received the second highest amount: $97,050. Mr Dutton began his campaign there in January, telling supporters, “If we win Chisholm, we’re a step closer to winning Government”.

Labor has thrown more than $90,000 on McEwen, in the north, and Bruce, the south-east. Mr Dutton has visited McEwen three times, and Bruce once during the campaign.

Political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said the ad spending looked like a response to the Coalition’s promise to halve the petrol excise tax for a year. “It could indicate to us potentially that has been working and is making Labor very nervous in these seats,” he said.

YouTube spending

For months, pollsters and commentators have been adamant the election would be won or lost in Victoria, where an unpopular state Labor Government has been a drag on the federal Labor vote, and where the rapidly increasing outer-suburbs are feeling inflation most acutely.

The figures do not provide a complete picture of where the Labor Party is putting its advertising resources, including spending on Facebook, television or radio. But they include YouTube, one of the biggest websites. One of Labor’s most popular YouTube ads, Building Australia’s Future, has been played 4.3 million times.

Labor spent $77,750 in Hawke, another northern Melbourne seat dependent on car travel.

The most spent in a seat outside of Victoria was $85,350 in the Cairns-based Liberal-held Leichhardt, which the Labor Party is trying to win following the retirement of long-time Liberal National Party MP Warren Entsch.

In NSW, Labor has spent more, at $82,000, in Parramatta than any other seat, where it increased ad spending 11 per cent over the past five days.

In total, the Google ad spending data shows more than $1 million was spent on Victorian ads, compared with $686,00 in NSW over the 30 days.

National v party polls

The swathe of seats being targeted by Labor ads gives credence to Coalition public and private hopes that the national polls are not a true indication of the mood of the electorate.

Mr Dutton, speaking from Hobart on Thursday morning, said as much when asked about exit polls suggesting a Labor win and the Liberals losing Bradfield to a teal.

“Being at my age, the problem is that you do remember some things, and I do not have to go back that far to the Queensland election, and you will recall reporting [about it being] neck in neck. Stephen Miles was predicted to become the next Premier of Queensland, but that did not happen,” he said.

“I would take it with a grain of salt, all those small sample sizes that you see in different seats.

Nationals Leader David Littleproud also urged caution when it comes to the polls, saying 2025 was “more of a 2019 election than a 2022 election”.

“I see that through the prism of our own track polling of the seats that we’re trying to win, and the ones we have challenges in,” he said.

“The national polls, I think, aren’t reflective that this is very much geographically based this election. In Victoria, they’ve got the overlay of a horrible state Government with a horrible Federal Government.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also referred to the 2019 election as a cautionary tale against believing the polls. He has routinely acknowledged Labor has “a mountain to climb” if it were to win this election.

“This election is certainly up for grabs. There is one word that I will say . . . 2019. And I remind colleagues that 2019, the bookies paid out. And guess what? That didn’t occur,” he said earlier this week.

In total, the Labor Party spent $2.86m on Google ads in the 30-day period. The Liberal Party spent $1.24m in the same period, although the state divisions of the party also funded ads, as did the National Party.