Federal election 2025: Peter Dutton faces tight contest to hold seat of Dickson as vote count begins

After an exhausting five weeks of campaigning to lead the country, Peter Dutton could be ousted in his own seat of Dickson.

The outer Brisbane electorate, which the Opposition Leader has held since 2001, will be one of the most closely watched seats on election night.

Not only is it the most marginal seat in Queensland, at a gut-wrenching 1.7 per cent, Anthony Albanese has made it very well known he believes Labor’s third-time contender Ali France has a good chance of flipping the seat.

The Prime Minister has made two visits to the electorate throughout the campaign. When historic social media posts made by Ms France emerged of her sharing a photo of Mr Dutton and former prime minister Scott Morrison photoshopped into a Nazi uniform, Mr Albanese continued to back in Ms France.

“Ali France is someone who has shown courage, who has overcome adversity, is putting herself forward not for the first time, not for the second time, but for the third time to look after the local community that she loves,” he said in the second last week of the campaign.

Despite the tight race, Sportsbet odds still have Mr Dutton holding onto his seat, with a Coalition victory paying out $1.38, with Labor paying out $3.25 as of 5pm on Saturday.

Odds for the Climate-200 backed candidate Ellie Smith are considerably higher at $11.

While Dickson has always been a marginal seat, Mr Dutton attempted to switch to the safer Liberal seat of McPherson in 2009.

However he lost preselection to Morrison-era minister Karen Andrews, who will retire after this election.

Voters support Greens, Labor, Smith

While booths were open on Saturday, voters from Pine Rivers State High School centre told NewsWire they were voting for Ms France because they had been “turned off” by Mr Dutton’s voting history.

Local Alex, 34, said his vote was driven by opposition to the Liberal leader himself.

“I voted for Labor to keep Dutton out,” he said, adding that Mr Dutton “lacks inclusiveness and a sense of community.”

Tegan, 37, and Tim, 31, also voted for Ms France, citing sustainability and the cost of living as key issues.

“Ali actually came door to door, and I really liked what she had to say,” Tim said.

Tegan said Mr Dutton’s voting history on certain policies turned her off the Liberal leader.

Kazuma Shimizu, 32, said he previously supported Labor but switched his vote to the Greens, influenced in part by his experience as a renter.

“I know their housing policies and other ideas are a bit more radical, but I think that’s just what we need,” Mr Shimizu told NewsWire.

For 71-year-old Jay Sutherland, climate change was a key factor in her decision.

“There’s a lot of talk about climate, but it’s very slow-moving,” Ms Sutherland said.

“I’ve got 17 grandchildren, so I’ve got to vote for their future.”

Davin Grieve, 52, said he voted for the local independent candidate and preferenced Labor next.

“They’re a lot stronger on the environment than the Liberals,” Mr Grieve said.

“I just don’t want Dutton in – we’ve gotta get him out.”

Some voters, however, maintained strong party loyalties. One man, 52, offered a simple rationale for his choice: “I just prefer Liberals.”

A more unexpected switch came from a 59-year-old voter who asked to remain anonymous. Previously a Liberal supporter, he said he voted for One Nation this time, expressing concerns about the priorities of the major parties.

“I didn’t like how the major parties are focusing on sustainability and renewables,” the man said, citing discontent with “the direction that the country is heading.”

A 36-year-old mother of three from Dickson said she voted for the Liberal Party, believing its policies best support parents returning to work after having a baby.

Meanwhile, Shaikh and Munin, both 33, cast their votes for independent candidate Ellie Smith, saying they felt the major parties no longer represented their values.

They cited the rising cost of living and the housing crisis as key issues influencing their decision, adding they’re struggling to break into the property market and don’t believe the major parties offer real solutions.