NICOLA SMITH: Russia-Indonesia reports are a wake-up call to arm Australia’s defences

Panic over reports that Russia requested access to station war planes at an air base 1400km from Darwin has thrust defence to the frontlines of an election campaign that has barely touched on national security in an era of heightened global tensions.

Jakarta has denied it will allow Moscow to base aircraft at the Manuhua Air Force Base in the province of Papua, but the distinct prospect of a future Russian military presence so close to Australia’s shores has stoked calls for the next Government to turbocharge defence spending.

It may not be a vote-winner on May 3, but Australia’s future security in the current geopolitical churn where Russia and China are joining hands and US foreign policy is increasingly unpredictable, depends on its leaders having a clear and long-term vision.

The reports of Russia’s regional ambitions that first emerged in defence journal Jane’s appeared to catch the Government off guard, immediately providing an easy hit for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to decry a “catastrophic failure of diplomatic relations”.

The mudslinging continued on Wednesday, overshadowing both parties housing policy agenda, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese accusing Mr Dutton of a shoot-from-the-hip response that was “wildly irresponsible”.

Mr Dutton rebutted the assertion and any suggestion he had potentially harmed Canberra’s ties with Jakarta after he claimed as the news unfolded that it had been “publicly announced by the President of Indonesia” when, in fact, he had not.

The Opposition Leader is correct to say that the “prospect of having Russia with a greater presence in our region is very real” and that Moscow deploying to an Indonesian base would be a “very troubling development”.

But the nightmare security scenario of nearby Russian assets as the Indo-Pacific is pulled into the crosshairs of intensifying US-China rivalry requires calm and rational strategising that rises far above party politics and the cheap blows of an election campaign.

The ifs and whats of Russia’s actual request remain murky, but it’s no secret that Jakarta, although historically non-aligned, has been strengthening ties with Russia as it considers how to protect its own interests in a shifting strategic environment.

In July last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has his sights on securing a stronger foothold in Southeast Asia even as he wages a brutal war in Ukraine, hosted Prabowo Subianto, then Indonesian defence minister and president-elect, in Moscow.

Security experts predict ‘major power war’ could be possible within this decade, warning the Government to invest now in the deterrence capabilities to withstand future crises.

As Australia works rapidly to expand its defence and security ties with Indonesia, Russia has the same goal, holding joint naval drills in the Java Sea in November.

Russia-Indonesia defence ties are too close for comfort and have already raised alarm bells in Canberra.

In 2017, Russia flew two nuclear-capable bombers on a patrol mission out of an Indonesian base on what is believed to have been an intelligence gathering exercise.

Even if Moscow’s most recent request was denied, the very fact that it emerged should prompt the Government and Opposition to “elevate defence and national security to a much higher level,” said Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

If Jakarta did give the green light in future, even to access on a rotational basis, then more Australian and US assets would be in the crosshairs of Russian military forces and long-range bombers, he said.

This would put Russian assets within range of US naval, air force and marine bases in Guam and offer a strategic outpost to assist China if crises flared in regional hotspots like the South China Sea.

For Australia, the risk grows even higher due to a hostile Russia’s burgeoning “no limits” partnership with Beijing.

The deepening alignment, sealed at the Winter Olympics in the days before the Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, saw China’s President Xi Jinping and Mr Putin vow to back each other in standoffs over Taiwan and to collaborate more against the West.

Canberra would be faced with the danger that any intelligence gathered from Russian sorties in Australia’s neighbourhood would be shared with Beijing in the spirit of strategic cooperation.

Security experts like Dr Davis predict “major power war” could be possible within this decade, warning the Government to invest now in the deterrence capabilities to withstand future crises.

Current defence spending was “grossly inadequate” and should be upped to a floor of 3 per cent of GDP by the 2026-27 Federal Budget, he said.

But such calls are not politically convenient on the eve of a Federal election with the Budget already heading towards $1 trillion in the red.

Both major parties agree Australia faces its most dangerous strategic environment since World War 2. Where they also align is in their reluctance to act.