LATIKA M BOURKE: Donald Trump threatens nuclear escalation, orders subs moved after Dmitry Medvedev warning

Donald Trump announced that he had stationed two US nuclear submarines in the “appropriate places” following inappropriate threats made by former Russian President and online firebrand Dmitry Medvedev.

The trigger appeared to be a social media post Medvedev published on July 28, threatening war between Russia and the US — two of the world’s nuclear-armed countries.

“Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10,” Mr Medvedev said, referring to the US President’s decision to cut down by forty days the deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table regarding the war in Ukraine.

“He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran.

“2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war.

“Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country.

“Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road!”

Mr Trump, also in a social media post, had warned Mr Medvedev to “watch his words” but on Friday went a giant step further by injecting the nuclear word into the online barney.

“Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” Mr Trump said on Truth Social — his personal social media platform.

‘”Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”

Speaking to reporters later, Mr Trump elaborated.

“We had to do that,” he said.

“We just have to be careful, a threat was made, and we didn’t think it was appropriate.

“A threat was made by a former president of Russia and we’re going to protect our people.

“He was talking about nuclear, when you talk about nuclear we have to be prepared and we’re totally prepared.’

It wasn’t clear which of the US Navy’s submarines — ballistic missile, guided missiles, or attack-class — were being positioned.

And whilst Mr Medvedev, who spends his time posting fanatical, deranged and insulting remarks on social media, is Deputy Chair of Russia’s National Security Council, he is not viewed as speaking for Mr Putin or capable of issuing a threat, with any legitimacy.

And, as former US Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer explained, the US Navy typically deploys between five to six of its 14 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) at sea within striking range of Russia.

The SSBNs are armed with a Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) named Trident D5, which has a range of around 12,070 kilometres or 7500 miles.

“The submarines can start covering targets soon after they leave their port on the US east or west coast,” Mr Pifer told The Nightly.

“Assuming that Trump was referring to SSBNs, there almost certainly were more than two in areas (‘appropriate regions’) from which they could target Russia.”

Mr Pifer believes Mr Trump’s nuclear threat is “largely performative” and would be judged as such in the Kremlin.

“I assume Putin understands all of this, so I don’t see a reason why this would have any significant effect on him,” he said.

“Given that Medvedev is not in the inner circle and has a reputation for sending outlandish Tweets, Trump should have ignored it.

“It’s beneath the White House to engage in a Twitter fight with the likes of Medvedev.”

For these exact reasons, Mr Trump’s missive was almost certainly not aimed at deterring a conflict with Russia.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who is behind a bipartisan bill to impose 500 per cent sanctions on goods imported from countries that continue to buy Russian oil, such as China and India, sought to put Russia in its place.

“To my friends in Russia: President Trump seeks peace not conflict,’” he said on X.

“However, please understand that he is not Obama, he is not Biden, and he will not be trifled with.

“You are overplaying your hand.”

The threat has renewed currency following Mr Trump’s decision in June to abandon MAGA’s instinctive isolationism and display some born-again-neo-con tendencies in bombing Iranian nuclear sites.

Another reading of the President’s motives and methods is that provided by Matthew Kroenig from the Atlantic Council, who praised it as a “smart move” by Mr Trump.

“Since the war started, only one side engaged in nuclear brinkmanship, but the United States can play this game too,” he said.

“Putin respects and fears American nuclear weapons.

‘”This will get his attention.”

Mr Kroenig’s view is relevant.

Before Mr Trump’s inauguration, he co-wrote with the man Mr Trump went on to appoint National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz (subsequently demoted after the Signal chat leak incident), the Ukraine strategy that the White House is currently deploying.

In their article for The Economist, Mr Kroenig and Mr Waltz argued that Mr Trump should end the war, using at first a carrot and stick approach using American economic power to bring Mr Putin to the table, and if that failed, then arm Ukraine.

After a frustrating series of months when Mr Trump appeared blinded by his dislike of Mr Zelensky and odd affection and sympathy for Putin, the US President has gradually come to the latter position, agreeing to sell European NATO partners more Patriot air defence systems so existing platforms could be moved to Kyiv.

But Mr Trump ultimately wants to end the killing, and a Nobel Peace Prize and to do that, he must force Mr Putin to accept a ceasefire.

It went little noticed but his temporary representative at the United Nations Security Council, John Kelley, set a deadline for a deal to be struck on an exact date — August 8. That’s less than a week.

“Both Russia and Ukraine must negotiate a ceasefire and durable peace,” Mr Kelley told the UNSC.

“It is time to make a deal.

“President Trump has made clear this must be done by August 8.

“The United States is prepared to implement additional measures to secure peace.’

What those “additional measures” are remains to be seen, but a Truth Social post does not mean the world is any closer to a nuclear war; but it is also an open question as to whether it brings any closer an end to Ukrainian children being bombed to death as they sleep, as five were in Kyiv this week, including a two-year-old, who was born and killed in war.