Your ultimate Federal election polling day guide: How it works, the key seats to watch and what it all means

Federal elections come and go every three years, so if you need a refresher on how it all works — and the key 2025 seats to watch — we have you covered.

HOW IT WORKS

To form a majority government, 76 seats are needed for one party.

Polls have sweetened for the Labor party as the election has gone on with most now predicting a Labor government, but whether Labor can win a majority or will rely on crossbench support as a minority government is largely an unknown.

The last time there was a minority government in Australia was in 2010 under Julia Gillard — if a minority government is elected it would be just the third time since 1943.

KEY PROMISES

Cost of living

Labor is offering a “modest” tax cut from mid 2026 as well as promising to implement an instant $1000 tax deduction write off and cutting student debt by 20 per cent. The Coalition has pledged to cut the fuel excise by 25c promising to save the average family $14 a week if they fill up one vehicle once a week. They have also promised to implement a tax offset plan worth up to $1200 for middle-income earners.

Housing

Labor have promised to build 100,000 homes reserved for first time buyers while also expanding their help to buy scheme and increasing access to the 5 per cent home deposit. The Coalition have promised to allow first time home buyers to access up to $50,000 from their superannuation for a home deposit and allow them to claim interest payments on their mortgage as a tax deduction. The party will also spend $5 billion for infrastructure in housing developments to “accelerate” the construction of 500,000 homes.

Health

Both parties have pledged at least $8.5 billion to expand bulk billing services to a goal of 9 in 10 GPs. Both sides will also cut the maximum price of PBS medication by nearly $7 to just $25. The Government has promised to build 50 more Urgent Care Clinics at the cost of $644 million while the Coalition says it will restore the number of subsidised mental health appointments to 20 from the current number of 10.

Energy

The Government has promised to extend its energy bill rebate from July 1 which will see another $150 taken off household’s power bills. It will also spend $2.3 billion to lower the cost of batteries for households by 30 per cent. The Coalition have pledged to build seven nuclear reactors around the country which they say will cost $118 billion although they would not be producing power for at least another decade. Peter Dutton has promised to back the expansion of gas including approving the North West Gas Shelf proposal within his first 30 days in power.

National Security

The Coalition announced it would spend an extra 21 billion on defence before the end of the decade to buy more F-35 fighters and firm the AUKUS deal. The extra spend aims to lift the current share of GDP spent on defence to three per cent in 10 years time compared to Labor’s goal of spending 2.3 per cent of GDP in the 2033-34 financial year. Anthony Albanese did announce a $1.2 billion spend to buy critical minerals for a new strategic stockpile to increase negotiating power.

THE 20 KEY SEATS TO WATCH AROUND THE NATION

NSW:

• Bennelong is held by Labor’s Jerome Laxale but is now notionally Liberal on a margin of 0.04 following a redistribution, his challenger is the Liberals’ Scott Yung.
• Gilmore is held by Labor’s Fiona Phillips and is vulnerable on a margin of just 0.2 per cent, her challenger is former NSW State treasurer Andrew Constance.
• Fowler is held by independent Dai Le on a margin of 1.1 per cent, she beat high-profile Labor candidate Kristina Keneally in 2022 and faces Labor’s Tu Le in a seat with a large Vietnamese population.
• Robertson is held by Labor’s Gordon Reid on a margin of 2.2 per cent, his challenger is former Liberal MP Lucy Wicks who lost the seat in 2022.
• Bradfield is held by Liberal MP Paul Fletcher who has announced his retirement on a margin of 2.5 per cent following a major redistribution. Liberal challenger Gisele Kapterian is looking to succeed Mr Fletcher against independent Nicolette Boele.
• Paterson is held by Labor’s Meryl Swanson on a margin of 2.6 the Liberal party have named Laurence Antcliff as their challenger.

VIC:

• Deakin is held by the Liberals’ Michael Sukkar on a margin of 0.02 after redistribution, the smallest in the country, Labor have announced Matt Gregg to challenge for the seat.
• Menzies is held by the Liberals’ Keith Wolohan but a redistribution has made the seat notionally Labor with a margin of 0.4. Labor have announced Gabriel Ng to fight for the seat.
• Kooyong is held by Climate 200-backed independent Monique Ryan on a margin of 2.2 per cent and is facing the Liberals’ Amelia Hamer.
• Chisholm is held by Labor’s Carina Garland who’s margin has been cut almost in half to 3.3 per cent, her Liberal challenger is former Higgins MP Katie Allen.

SA:

• Sturt is held by the Liberal party’s James Stevens on a margin of just 0.5 per cent, Labor have named Claire Clutterham as their candidate to challenge the vulnerable seat.

QLD:

• Dickson is held by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on a margin of 1.7 per cent and despite being leader of his party is potentially vulnerable to experienced Labor challenger Ali France.
• Ryan is held by the Greens’ Elizabeth Watson-Brown on a margin of 2.6 per cent the seat is traditionally Liberal, the Coalition has selected Maggie Forrest to challenge for the seat.
• Leichardt is held by long-term MP Warren Entsch who is retiring on a margin of 3.4 per cent. Labor have announced Matt Smith as their candidate while the Liberals have selected Jeremy Neal.

TAS:

• Lyons is held by Labor’s Brian Mitchell who is retiring on a margin of 0.9 per cent. Labor have named former State Labor leader Rebecca White as a successor while the Liberals have selected Susie Bower.
• Bass is held by moderate Liberal MP Bridget Archer on a margin of 1.4 per cent and is being challenged by Labor’s Jess Teensdale.

WA:

• Curtin is held by Climate 200-backed independent Kate Chaney on a margin of 1.3 per cent in the traditionally blue-ribbon seat. The Liberal party have named Tom White as its challenger.
• Tangney is held by Labor’s Sam Lim on a margin of 2.8 per cent, it is Labor’s most marginal seat in Western Australia with the Liberals’ Howard Ong challenging for the seat.
• Bullwinkel has been created for the 2025 election but is notionally Labor on a margin of 3.3 per cent. Labor have named Trish Cook as their candidate while the Liberal party have announced Matt Moran and the Nationals Mia Davies.

NT:

• Lingiari is held by Labor’s Marion Scrymgour on a margin of 1.7 per cent, the Country Liberal party has announced Lisa Siebert as its challenger for the seat.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SENATE?

No party currently has a majority in the Senate with Labor having 24 seats, the Coalition having 30, the Greens 11 and others 10.

A party needs 39 seats to hold an outright majority in the Government, a feat which rarely happens.

Forty seats are up for grabs this election, 18 Senate positions won by Coalition members up for re-elction compared to 13 of Labor’s, six Greens and one One Nation seat as well as David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie.

THE ODDS

Labor are the heavy favourites coming into the election currently having 1.06 odds on SportsBet compared to the Coalition’s 9.50.

The website also has a Labor majority government as the favourite with odds of 1.57 compared to a Labor minority government of 2.88, a Coalition minority government at 10 and a Coalition majority at 34.

The odds are slightly better — but still grim — on TAB with Labor having odds of 1.09 of winning and the Coalition at 7.50.

These are expected to change as the day rolls on.