JENI O’DOWD: Secret Harbour by-election tests One Nation as Labor fights to hold key seat on Hastie’s turf
One Nation, Labor and Andrew Hastie face a crucial test in an unlikely election battleground this Saturday.
There’s nothing calm about the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour right now.
A perfect storm is bearing down on this suburban patch of Perth on Saturday, and three things are sailing straight into it: One Nation’s national momentum, Labor’s grip on outer suburban Australia and quite possibly Andrew Hastie’s leadership ambitions.
The by-election is being held after the retirement of local MP Paul Papalia, who has held the seat for nearly two decades.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.Labor holds Secret Harbour by 11.5 per cent, but latest polling puts Labor and One Nation neck and neck.
WA Premier Roger Cook has described this as the “fight of our life,” a big call for a seat his party has held since 2007. But the ramifications of this by-election are enormous; it’s a test of One Nation’s polling numbers against real votes ahead of the Victorian election in November.
A Roy Morgan poll in early August has One Nation on track to win at least 10 seats in Victoria’s Upper House, with support above 36 per cent in the south-east and close to 30 per cent in the west.
Put together with the Coalition’s own projected haul, that’s enough for the two to hold a majority between them.
It gets more serious in the Victoria’s Lower House. Labor’s own internal research, briefed to ministers in June, found One Nation could take as many as 17 regional and outer suburban seats, several of them now held by the Nationals.
It’s looking like an orange slide in Victoria, and Pauline Hanson’s popularity gets its next test in WA on Saturday, with One Nation helped by Liberal preferences.
Yes, it’s a State election, but people are angry with the Albanese Government over housing, cost of living and immigration and want to show that anger by sending a message via One Nation.
Whoever believes State seats are fought on State issues should look at how selective Anthony Albanese’s involvement actually is.
He campaigned heavily alongside Roger Cook during the WA State election earlier this year, so it’s not as though he stays out of State contests on principle.
Secret Harbour has had no such visit, no photo opportunity, no show of Federal muscle to help push Labor over the line. If he thought there was anything to gain from turning up, he’d have found a reason to be there.
Which brings us to the Hastie problem. Secret Harbour sits inside Andrew Hastie’s Federal seat of Canning, and Pauline Hanson has made no secret of where her sights are pointed.
One Nation’s campaign director James Ashby is, in Hastie’s own words last week, “coming for me”.
He’s not being paranoid. A strong One Nation showing on his own patch will not sit well with a man with leadership ambitions.
And let’s not underestimate the move towards One Nation and its combative and engaged fan base.
Last week I wrote about some of One Nation’s lesser-known policies apart from immigration, and the reaction was eyebrow-raising.
I had my own judgment questioned in language well short of measured; unhinged was one of the gentler descriptions, over a column that simply questioned the party’s own policy positions.
And this tells you something. A fan base that’s quick to mobilise over a single column isn’t a protest movement drifting along. It’s organised and turning out. And an active base is exactly what will show up on a Saturday.
As veteran political commentator Michelle Grattan wrote in The Conversation last week, One Nation’s political clout is even more extraordinary considering the party has only six Federal parliamentarians, four of them in the Senate.
“Its current strength and appeal to a substantial slice of disgruntled voters is almost totally based on the personality of Hanson, who has the dual qualities of cut-through and a Teflon skin,” Grattan wrote.
Whatever happens, someone’s story takes a hit on Saturday night.
If One Nation wins, it’s the clearest evidence yet that its rise is a genuine electoral shift. If Labor holds on, One Nation heads into Victoria with a dent in the momentum story it’s been selling all year.
Either way, a seat most Australians had never heard of a fortnight ago is about to tell us something very real.
