Jeremy Rockliff: Liberal leader more popular with younger voters because of divisive AFL stadium issue

A controversial sports stadium has delivered Tasmania a political twist, with young adults more likely to vote Liberal while Labor’s strongest backing comes from older generations, a new poll shows.

The state’s Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff is winning over 44 per cent of voters aged 18 to 34, with Labor opposition leader Josh Willie on 24 per cent and the Greens on 20 per cent, based on a DemosAU poll.

Labor’s strongest support was among the 55-plus demographic, covering boomers and older generation X voters at 27 per cent. This was still below the Liberal Party’s 38 per cent backing from the oldest voting group.

DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said the Liberal minority government’s proposed AFL stadium in Hobart, for the new Tasmania Devils team, had overturned the usual adage of younger voters usually being more left-leaning.

“Normally, parties of the right do well with older voters and parties of the left do well with younger voters,” he told The Nightly.

“Whilst this is one poll, and do need to look at it cautiously, the fact we even have this outcome is very unusual.

“It’s looked at as an AFL stadium, but it is generally about entertainment — sports, concerts. I would suggest younger voters look at it as giving Tasmania some of the entertainment value that is seen in larger cities of Australia.”

After more than a decade in power, Liberal still leads with a 41 per cent primary vote — a 1.1 point lift since July’s election that failed to deliver a majority, the October poll of 1021 Tasmanians found.

This came after Budget blowouts linked to the new Finnish-built Spirit of Tasmania ferries, with berth infrastructure costs soaring from $90 million to $493 million, and after Treasury revealed Tasmania’s net debt would reach $13 billion by 2027–28, with a $1 billion deficit forecast for this financial year.

Since the state election, a major, previously unbudgeted upgrade has been revealed as necessary at the Devonport terminal, along with a $75 million taxpayer-funded bailout for ferry operator TT-Line

Despite the government’s poor financial record, Labor’s poll result was weaker at 24 per cent — a 1.9-point swing against the party since the July election triggered by an ALP-led no-confidence motion.

The DemosAU poll showed the Greens were on 15 per cent, a small increase of 0.6 per cent. Tasmania’s two left-wing parties still have less combined support than the Liberal Party.

Mr Rockliff was also the preferred premier, winning 46 per cent support compared with 34 per cent for his Labor opponent Mr Willie, who replaced Dean Winter as leader after the election.

Despite being the voters’ choice at a State level, the Liberal Party holds no Federal lower house seats, after losing the regional electorates of Bass and Braddon in the national election in May.

Federally, Labor holds four out of five House of Representatives seats, with independent Andrew Wilkie representing the Hobart-based electorate of Clark.