Kellie Sloane tipped to lead NSW Liberals after Mark Speakman resigns amid party crisis

A first-term Liberal MP is set to be tasked with fixing her party’s damaged brand, but one analyst doubts the move will make any difference.

Kellie Sloane will nominate to become Liberal leader after Mark Speakman succumbed to pressure to resign, and on Thursday evening she was the only confirmed candidate.

There was speculation former minister Alister Henskens could nominate, but News Corp reported that he had decided against throwing his hat in the ring.

The position will be determined in a partyroom meeting on Friday.

Accepting his fate, Mr Speakman acknowledged the “statistical unlikelihood” of his first-term opposition rolling the Labor government at the 2027 state election.

No first-term opposition has won an election in NSW or federally since the 1930s.

The Coalition has slumped in recent polls, with some surveys including by DemosAU putting Labor ahead 59-41 on a two-party preferred basis.

“We’re looking at 58 and 59 per cent, that’s a pretty big lead now ... they are in a pretty dire spot at the moment and they have had times where they’ve been doing a little bit better,” election analyst Ben Raue told AAP.

“I’m just sceptical a leadership change will change things, I don’t really think people are really thinking very much about Mark Speakman positively or negatively, and I’m not sure that’s his fault.”

Speaking before Mr Speakman’s resignation, the Tally Room blogger questioned if it was individual unpopularity or the wider damage to the Liberal brand that was tanking them in the polls.

“It’s a very easy mechanical change to make, to sack someone and replace them with someone else, but unless that is the specific reason why you’re unpopular, it’s not going to change anything,” he said.

“If the opinion polling is because of the government’s performance, if it’s because of particular broader issues or because of internal conflicts within the party, that’s not going to be resolved by a change of leader.”

Mr Speakman lamented the “disarray” of the federal coalition since its election thrashing in May, which has included backflipping on its commitment to a net-zero emissions policy.

The NSW Liberals have committed to net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050, in contrast to their counterparts in Canberra.

Ms Sloane, a former TV news anchor elected to parliament in 2023, has been widely tipped as the most credible challenger for the leadership.

“She is someone who is extremely capable of taking that fight up to Labor, and let’s be honest, she has been an absolutely stellar performer in the three or so years she’s been in parliament,” Mr Speakman said.