LATIKA M BOURKE: Anthony Albanese is the One Nation Prime Minister and Jim Chalmers is his enabler

When Anthony Albanese won his 94 seats on May 3 last year, he held history in his hands.

The Member for Grayndler was not just the only prime minister to turn incumbency into a swing in favour of the one-term government but topped the Labor podium of victorious leaders by securing a record high of 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

The Prime Minister might have been justified in borrowing from Paul Keating to declare it the “sweetest victory of all” and definitely one for “the true believers”, but wisely he did not.

Instead, after watching the result at Kirribilli with only a handful of friends and advisers, he gave a vow, witnessed by the party faithful at the Canterbury-Hurlstone RSL Club in Sydney’s inner west, to the voters who he acknowledged had opted for red for the first time.

“I make this solemn pledge. We will not forget that. We will never take it for granted. Repaying your trust will drive our government, each and every day of the next three years,” he said.

He was the unvanquished, and even before the champagne ran dry, he was already planning a tilt at a third term.

But he either forgot or deliberately neglected to heed his own pledge made that night.

How did he end up repaying the electorate? By breaking his promise, made more than 50 times during the campaign, that he would not touch negative gearing and the capital gains tax concessions.

And now the latest RedBridge polling, first published by the Financial Review, shows a new terrifying reality for Labor, more voters now trust One Nation on three of the most important issues that matter, including for the first time, the cost of living, as well as housing affordability and immigration and crime.

That leaves Labor on top only when it comes to healthcare. Expect to hear a lot more about Medicare, and on top of that, AI threats to Medicare all the way to the next election.

This is a dire outcome for the government. Anxieties about immigration fermenting support for One Nation are understandable, but to lose its lead on the kitchen table concerns worrying Australians in the same week as interest rates rose — and to a woman rejected by voters for two decades — should be setting off the loudest of alarm bells.

Worryingly for both the major parties, the polling shows that what might have started as a protest vote after the Bondi massacre has now begun to calcify into hardened support for Pauline Hanson. The longer this continues, the more legitimised One Nation becomes to voters who might never have previously given Ms Hanson’s railing against Asians, Muslims and migrants the time of day.

It is true that the Coalition shares responsibility, as does the increased polarisation and fragmentation of the public square.

But this is only part of the story. Neither of these things would matter as much if Mr Albanese were living up to his victory night promise.

Instead, charting the surge in support for Pauline Hanson and her party correlates directly to his hat-trick of political errors.

In December, Labor was polling with a primary of 35 per cent, around the same level that delivered the government its 94-seat landslide the year prior. Status quo.

After the Bondi massacre and Mr Albanese’s belated decision to call a royal commission, which was political mistake number one, the government’s primary vote began to slide to 34 per cent in January and 31 per cent by the time of the budget.

Then came the broken promises. Political Mistake No. 2.

In May, RedBridge recorded Labor’s primary for the first time with a 2 in front, at 28 per cent.

By June, Mr Albanese had bought himself a little breathing space; perhaps some voters could see his rationale that his housing tax grabs might benefit the economy overall, if younger Australians were helped onto the property ladder.

The primary vote rose and once more had a three in front of it, but only just — at 30 per cent.

And then came Political Mistake No. 3: Melongate. It took a long time for the press gallery to realise just how un-prime-ministerial a look it was to sit down in the Prime Minister’s official residence for a sexual innuendo filled chat with podcast comedian Bush Barbie, but the public knew what they saw — hubris, indiscipline, shocking judgement and locker-room talk that would make many in the pub wince.

Labor’s polling is now stuck on 28 per cent. It can and may improve. Anthony Albanese has been a winner twice before and once at historic highs. But his own record is starting to pile up against him.

His personal approval ratings have crashed to minus 27 per cent; that’s just one point shy of where Peter Dutton, who Labor maligned as “Voldemort” and Trump-lite, was just before the Liberals’ last election wipeout.

On a preferred prime minister basis, Mr Albanese can comfort himself that he remains five points ahead of Ms Hanson but he wouldn’t like that to get any narrower.

And in case Labor doesn’t get the message about how personal this is, Treasurer Jim Chalmer’s own ratings have also plummeted to minus 23.

Labor MPs may be approaching the point where they begin asking if anyone is willing to listen to the prime minister anymore? Could he do or say anything that would bring voters back on board?

Time after time, when interviewed by The Nightly, Labor ministers have comforted themselves that the rise of One Nation is all about the hapless Coalition, led by the gormless Peter Dutton to defeat, the flash-in-a-pan Sussan Ley and now the aimless Angus Taylor.

Late last week, Mr Albanese told journalist and author George Megalogonis that the rise of One Nation was a challenge for the entire country.

He downplayed the party’s national polling and said that Victoria’s State election next month would test whether Senator Hanson’s popularity in the regions would hold up in the inner cities and materialise into seats.

But he conceded that the populists could win the balance of power despite having few candidates and policies. He also blamed social media.

“Because people are just frustrated, angry, break the system, and that is being perpetuated by the way that social media works, the way algorithms work,” he said.

“Misinformation is a reality there. We know as well that outside forces can undermine democracy, that’s a big thing that’s happening in the UK at the moment. They’re worried about Russian interference etc., and it’s real.”

There is no doubt that the populist right is dominating platforms such as X, owned by Donald Trump backer and trillionnaire Elon Musk. But it is far from the sole cause of Labor’s ills.

Even if he cannot bring himself to admit it, the prime minister bears much blame for opening the electorate’s eyes to One Nation with his unforced errors.

And he has been enabled by his big-spending, high-taxing Treasurer, who opted for breaking election promises to raise revenue, instead of being honest with his prime minister and the electorate beforehand.