Liberals’ climate policy shift could breach Paris Agreement, trigger legal fallout, experts warn

A compromise climate policy being mulled by the Liberals would put Australia in breach of its international obligations and risk legal consequences, experts say.

Ahead of a crucial meeting of Liberal MPs and senators on Wednesday, party insiders say they’re likely to agree to water down Australia’s climate ambition if they return to government while retaining a commitment to reaching net-zero carbon emissions at some point.

Australia signed up to the Paris accord in 2015 under then-prime minister Tony Abbott, promising to limit its greenhouse gas emissions as part of a global push to tackle global warming.

Six years later, the Morrison Government set a target of net zero emissions by 2050, and Labor has since set more ambitious climate goals including a 62 to 70 per cent reduction in carbon pollution by 2035.

Debate over the coalition’s climate policy restarted in earnest after Labor’s May election win, and the issue now threatens to engulf Sussan Ley’s leadership.

Junior coalition partner the Nationals have announced a plan to ditch a formal climate target and instead tie emissions reductions to an average of OECD countries.

University of Queensland climate and environmental law expert Justine Bell-James said any move to weaken Australia’s targets would be in breach of the Paris accord.

“Under the Paris agreement countries have to make these pledges every five years,” Professor Bell-James told AAP.

“Because of this mechanism that they call the ratchet mechanism, each successive one needs to be an increase in ambition.”

Latrobe University climate law expert Julia Dehm agreed, saying a future government would “certainly” be in breach of the Paris agreement if it went back on its promises.

Dr Dehm said a ruling from the International Court of Justice in July that all countries had a legal obligation to tackle the “urgent and existential threat” of climate change was an additional barrier to watering down Australia’s climate targets.

“There is the potential for states to take Australia to the ICJ alleging that it hasn’t fulfilled its international climate obligations,” she said, adding that a weaker emissions reduction goal would also cause reputational damage for the government.

Moderate Liberal senator Andrew Bragg has threatened to quit his role in the shadow ministry and move to the backbench if his colleagues decide to ditch net zero and withdraw from the Paris deal.

There’s speculation other Liberals could follow if the party makes such a move.

But Senator Bragg said he didn’t think the Liberals would leave the Paris agreement, because they were a party of government and not “fringe dwellers”.