Liberals likely for minority in Tasmanian election, Jacqui Lambie emerges as kingmaker

Tasmania appears to have elected a hung parliament, with the nation’s only Liberal government facing the prospect of negotiations with minor parties and independents to form government.

The island state went to the polls more than a year early after the Liberal government spent about eight months in minority when two MPs defected to the cross bench.

Early counting on Saturday night indicates the Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, will pick up more seats than Labor but not the 18 of 35 required for majority.

The ABC called 13 seats for the Liberals at 8.30pm (AEDT), with election analyst Antony Green saying they were tracking for 14 or 15 with 37 per cent of the primary vote.

Labor has 10 seats with 27 per cent of the first preference vote, with the Greens on two seats.

“The Liberals will be the largest party, and given Labor’s got such a low vote ... they are just not going to form government,” Mr Green said.

Final results may not be known until the week of April 8 because of Easter public holidays, a record 167 candidates and an expanded parliament.

Jacqui Lambie Network candidates have picked up 7.5 per cent of the overall primary vote, but not yet a seat under Tasmania’s Hare-Clark proportional system.

Former senator Eric Abetz will make a political comeback for the Liberals after running in the southern electorate of Franklin.

Tasmania’s parliament is being restored from 25 to 35 seats, with seven MPs to be elected in each of the state’s five electorates.

The Liberals have suffered an 11 per cent swing against them after picking up almost half the vote at the 2021 poll, while Labor’s vote has dipped marginally.

Greens Senator Nick McKim said the vote was a “clear message” Tasmanians were sick and tired of being taken for granted.

“It means that we are going to get a parliament which is creative, collaborative, works together on the floor of the house,” he said.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff earlier in the day declared the Liberals were “within a whisker” of majority.

“I’m particularly proud of our candidates, a great bunch of people from all walks of life,” Mr Rockliff told reporters after voting in Sassafras.

Labor leader Rebecca White, having a third tilt and becoming premier, earlier in the day conceded there was “every chance” Tasmania won’t get a clear result on election night.

“It might take a number of days before we actually understand what the make-up of the next government and parliament is,” Ms White said after voting at Sorell.

Mr Rockliff and Ms White have said they’re prepared to govern in minority but have ruled out doing deals or trading policy positions.

The pair exchanged campaign barbs over whether a new $715 million stadium in Hobart - a condition of Tasmania’s licence for an AFL club - is the right priority for the state.

Mr Rockliff, who signed the contract, backs the project but Ms White has described it as a bad deal and says she wants to renegotiate despite the AFL not wanting to budge.