Mark Riley: The peculiar logic behind Trump’s approach to foreign policy as he gives State of the Union Address

Donald Trump considers Australia to be among America’s closest friends.

But it doesn’t always feel that way.

What sort of friend slaps a 15 per cent tariff on a loyal ally’s exports?

The sort of friend that could have slapped a 50 per cent tariff on us but decided to go easy, suggests the US President.

It’s a peculiar logic, but one that underpins Trump’s typically transactional approach to foreign policy, outlined in the second State of the Union address of his second presidency.

The historically long and characteristically bombastic address confirmed that as international pressure increases on Trump to re-engage with the global rules-based order, his response is to recede further within the borders of his own limited cosmology.

America First is sounding increasingly more like America Only.

It is hyper-populist, hyper-parochial, hyper-divisive politics.

But it is hyper-Trump.

“Our country is winning so much we don’t know what to do about it!” the President declared theatrically to great whoops of delight from the Congress’s conservative pews.

The unspoken extension of that questionable boast is that all other countries are a bunch of losers and can go fish.

But for a country like Australia — one of geographically strategic importance and boundless natural resources — the fishing can bring a rich haul.

The mercantilist approach highlighted by this State of the Union address is driving deep wedges into America’s historical alliances across the Western world and beyond.

Those nations are now looking to cement new accords and beef up existing ones as a hedge to Trump’s tariff turmoil.

And that presents great offsetting opportunities for Australia.

Thanks largely to Donald Trump, Australia is edging towards an elusive and lucrative free trade agreement with Europe that could be sealed within just weeks.

European leaders are also looking to significantly increase their military and intelligence relationships with Australia. They are doing that to answer China’s challenge in the Asia-Pacific and to replace the strategic certainty that Trump’s decoupling from global agreements has removed.

At the same time, Trump’s promise in his speech to increase America’s military industrial base within his $US1trillion “Peace Through Strength” defence policy provides additional hope that the $A268billion AUKUS deal will be honoured by his administration.

That is unequivocally good news for Australia.

But his ambiguous commitment to protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty will increase anxiety levels among military strategists here and within our region.

That is part of the cost of friendship with Donald Trump. Though, as Iran might soon discover, the cost of being his enemy is much worse.