Nature Positive laws: Gas sector warns of shortages if Greens plan to ban new projects takes hold

WA will run out of gas by the middle of next decade, shutting off the State’s main power supply for households and industry — if the Greens get their way.

The Greens want a freeze on all new coal, oil and gas projects and the supporting infrastructure, citing scientific studies that claim fossil fuels must stay in the ground if the world is to have any chance of limiting global warming to 2C in line with the Paris Agreement.

But new industry modelling reveals this would spell danger for the people of WA.

The report commissioned by Australian Energy Producers (AEP) assumes the “no new gas” policy would mean an immediate ban on all new developments, expansion and infrastructure.

Under such a scenario, if the North West Shelf stopped production in 2032 — without the 38-year extension currently in place — there would quickly be no gas available for power generation in WA.

More than half the State’s industrial demand would go unmet within a couple of years.

Australian Energy Producers chief executive Samantha McCulloch said the result would leave WA miners and industry stranded.

“Gas is a critical part of WA’s energy transition, with AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) forecasting gas demand will grow by over 30 per cent to 2033, supporting the uptake of renewables and the phase out of coal in electricity as well as powering the State’s critical mineral ambitions,” she said.

“If anyone takes the Greens’ ban on new gas investment seriously, the State’s energy and economic security will be smashed.”

Polls are pointing to a minority Labor government after the next election, which would give the Greens a stronger sway if they hold the balance of power.

The Coalition’s refusal to compromise on multiple policy fronts has forced the Government to negotiate with the Greens.

This includes the Nature Positive plan to establish a federal environmental protection authority, in which the Greens want to insert a “climate trigger”, a mechanism to block projects based on their estimated pollution. Already projects face lengthy approvals processes and mounting legal threats from activists before they can get off the ground.

Woodside’s Browse project has been under consideration by the WA regulator since 2018.

And it will also need federal approval once the State process is finished.

The recent endangered listing of the dusky sea snake raised further questions, but the Federal Government ruled out a review of the Browse plans.

Ms McCulloch said the Greens policy would undermine energy security across the country and likely extend reliance on coal.

“Their three-word slogan is not an energy policy, but a recipe for destroying Australia’s economy and energy security. Australians deserve to know what a vote for the Greens really means for jobs and their energy bills,” she said.

If an investment ban were put in place immediately, there would be sufficient gas supply in WA from the North West Shelf project unless it ended production in 2032, the research from advisory firm EnergyQuest for AEP shows.

The modelling assumes the extension of the North West Shelf project to operate until 2070 — which was granted in 2022 — does not go ahead.

Plus the Browse and under-construction Scarborough projects are abandoned. All three are Woodside projects.

“In an emergency, the very first action we have to take is to immediately remove whatever is causing the damage. For the climate emergency, that means keeping all untapped coal, oil and gas fields in the ground,” the Greens’ policy statement says.

However, Greens leader Adam Bandt accused gas companies of “actively misleading the public” and Labor and the Liberals of being “addicted” to their donations.

“Australia is awash with gas, but the Australian people are getting ripped off by big gas corporations who pay next to no tax while sending gas — and profits — overseas,” he said.

“Gas is as dirty as coal, and the gas corporations are peddling misinformation because they know the Greens will force them to pay their fair share of tax to the Australian people in a power-sharing Parliament.”

On the east coast, an investment ban would mean that within five years, there would be no gas available for power generation and within a decade, most industrial gas users would not be able to get the fuel and may have to shut down if there is no alternative energy available.

The main problem for industrial users is that at the moment, there are no commercially viable alternatives to gas as a fuel for heat or feedstock for creating and processing products such as ammonia, alumina, urea, iron, steel and cement.

The EnergyQuest report says it is difficult to predict when alternatives will become commercially viable and points to an AEMO forecast that industrial demand for gas will stay level until about 2043.

The Federal and WA Governments have repeatedly insisted there is a vital role for continued gas production and supply in Australia’s energy transition.

This month, Resources Minister Madeleine King said Labor had always been clear that gas would support renewable energy into the long term, and that it was important to help the transition of regional partners.

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has approved some gas projects along with about 60 renewable energy projects over recent months.

“The transition to renewables is real and it’s happening, but it’s … no thanks to the Liberals , it’s no thanks to the Nationals, and, frankly, it’s no thanks to the Greens political party either,” she told Parliament in June.