Newspoll: Coalition narrows gap over Labor nationwide, takes lead in must-win NSW

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Dylan Caporn
The Nightly
The Liberals and Nationals have taken the lead over the Albanese Government in NSW — a key battleground State for the next election — new state-by-state polling analysis from Newspoll shows.
The Liberals and Nationals have taken the lead over the Albanese Government in NSW — a key battleground State for the next election — new state-by-state polling analysis from Newspoll shows. Credit: AAP

The Liberals and Nationals have taken the lead over the Albanese Government in the key battleground State of NSW ahead of the next election, a new state-by-state polling analysis from Newspoll shows.

The quarterly Newspoll, published in The Australian, shows the political climate narrowing for Labor, which has seen its lead drop one point on two-party preferred nationwide to 51 per cent against the Opposition’s 49 per cent.

But in NSW, with just a third of voters backing Labor and a 40 per cent primary vote for the Coalition, Peter Dutton’s Liberals have snatched the lead on two party-preferred at 51 per cent to the Government’s 49 per cent.

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If the figures translate on election day, Labor’s chances of being elected for a second term would be significantly damaged, with six seats held by Government MPs in NSW on a margin of less than five per cent.

While Labor returned to a winning position on two-party preferred in WA — 52 per cent to the Liberals’ 48 per cent — the improvement has come entirely off the back of a resurgent Greens vote, which has claimed three points to be up to 11 per cent.

WA was critical to Labor’s electoral success in 2022, picking up four lower house seats, and a third Senate position — won by now independent Senator Fatima Payman.

Labor maintained leads in Victoria and South Australia, but both contests narrowed, as the Coalition grew its lead in Queensland, where Mr Dutton took the lead as preferred Prime Minister against Mr Albanese.

Mr Albanese remained preferred Prime Minister nationally at 48 per cent to Mr Dutton’s 36 per cent.

The analysis also points to a growing disconnect between the major parties and young Australians — with a near three-way tie between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens for those under 34.

While Labor has a lead amongst young Australians on two-party preferred of 60 per cent to 40 per cent, a tie of 27 per cent between the Liberals and the Greens in the 18 to 34 demographic shows the minor left-wing party’s support base continues to surge.

Labor’s standing amongst the young dropped three points to 30 per cent.

The analysis comes after a bruising political fortnight for the Government, which was intent on selling its cost-of-living relief, including tax cuts and electricity bill credits, but was instead forced to deal with rogue Labor-turned-independent WA Senator Fatima Payman.

Announcing her resignation from Labor on Thursday, Senator Payman launched an assault against the Government, later claiming her former political party was leaving young supporters disenchanted.

The Greens have focused recent campaigning efforts, including in WA, on a number of issues young Australians are increasingly vocal on, including housing and rental affordability, and the Israel-Gaza war.

The next election must be held before May 2025.

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