One Nation support soars to highest ever, voters divided on Barnaby Joyce: polling

One Nation has surged to its highest-ever support off the back of Barnaby Joyce’s defection and Pauline Hanson’s condemned burqa stunt, new polling has revealed.

The Guardian Essential Poll, released on Wednesday, showed support for the right-wing populist party on a primary vote had reached 17 per cent.

The result - the party’s highest ever - was half of Labor’s 34 per cent primary vote and behind the Coalition’s 26 per cent primary vote.

It comes days after Ms Hanson revealed renegade former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce would defect to One Nation and lead the party’s 2028 NSW Senate ticket.

Conducted last week, the Guardian poll of 978 voters preceded Mr Joyce’s defection and showed voters were divided on his joining the minor party.

A little more than 30 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for One Nation if Mr Joyce became its leader – 42 per cent said they would be less likely to.

Voters were also split on Ms Hanson’s widely condemned burqa stunt in the Senate last month, which prompted her suspension for the last sitting week.

Forty-two per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote One Nation after the stunt, while some 35 per cent said they were more likely to.

One Nation achieved a 1.44 per cent swing in the 2025 federal election on the national first preference vote, with 991,814 ballots.

In doing so, the party doubled its Senate representation with four senators.

Respondents ‘pessimistic’ ahead of Christmas

Coming weeks before the Christmas break, the polling also revealed the pessimistic outlook of many Australians on cost of living and housing affordability.

While the polling came before Tuesday’s cash rate decision, 60 per cent of respondents said they were pessimistic Australia would “be able to deal” with the cost of living.

Nearly three in four were worried groceries, energy, and rent and mortgage would go up in 2026, while a further 58 per cent said they were pessimistic about affordable housing.

Fifty per cent said they were pessimistic about migration - a hot topic in recent weeks - while 61 per cent worried the world was becoming more divided.