One Nation's polling could herald messy hung parliament at next Federal election
One Nation has eclipsed Labor in opinion polling for the first time, with political analysts suggesting Australia could be headed for future hung parliaments.
Opinion polling shows Australia’s two-party political system could become a thing of the past at the next Federal election.
A survey by polling company DemosAu, answered by 1502 people between May 15 and May 20, showed One Nation with 28 per cent share of primary support, eclipsing Labor for the first time.
Labor had 26 per cent of the vote share, with the coalition on 23 per cent.
Sign up to The Nightly's newsletters.
Get the first look at the digital newspaper, curated daily stories and breaking headlines delivered to your inbox.
By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.DemosAu research director George Hasanakos said if polling continued to reflect this survey, Australia was headed for a hung parliament.
A fractured right, in which voters of all persuasions are turning to “populist” ideas, is likely to result in a different kind of minority government than what Australia has seen before.
The DemosAu results are more favourable to One Nation than a national Newspoll, conducted from May 14 to May 17 with a sample size of 1252.
Newspoll had One Nation on 25 per cent, up three points from the April poll, with Labor on 31 per cent.
A Resolve poll gave Labor 29 per cent of the primary vote, while One Nation rose two percentage points to 24 per cent.
Mr Hasanakos said Australia was likely moving away from a system in which major parties relied on minor parties and independents to govern, and a more complex tapestry was likely to emerge.
Labor received 34.6 per cent of the primary vote in the 2025 federal election, with the coalition garnering 31.8 per cent. One Nation collected 6.4 per cent and didn’t win any seats.
University of Canberra historian Frank Bongiorno said the political right was the most likely place for votes to splinter, but the left wasn’t immune.
“One Nation’s stances on wages are probably attracting people who are more like a traditional Labor voter, despite it being a right-wing populist party,” he said, noting Australia’s politics were still affected by the 2008 global financial crisis.
He said One Nation’s ability to continue disrupting the political sphere relied heavily on whether it could stabilise internally ahead of the next election.
“The party has a poor record of being able to keep its politicians in the tent once elected,” he said.
The next federal election is not expected until May 2028 and polling tends to fluctuate until closer to election time.
Professor Bongiorno said any polling results and reaction to the recent divisive federal budget also had to be understood in the context of Labor holding government by a significant majority.
Labor had tactically released an ambitious budget just a year into its second term, with two years left to win back voters, he said.
“The budget wasn’t designed with current polling in mind,” he said.
“It was designed to engage voters who feel shut out of economic prospects.”
