Sea change migration and regional housing crisis is fuelling One Nation surge in regional areas of Qld and NSW

One Nation’s vote is surging in regional towns and cities where a big influx of new residents is worsening the housing affordability crisis.

The sea and tree change phenomenon, where Australians sell up in a big city and relocate to the regions, drives up house prices.

Pauline Hanson’s party is particularly popular in regional areas where house prices in traditionally more affordable areas have been soaring by double-digit figures during the past year, pricing out those wanting to live closer to the beach or a major town centre.

The Federal electorates where One Nation stands a strong chance overlap with seven of Australia’s top 20 council areas when it comes to particularly high levels of internal migration, stretching from the NSW Hunter Valley two hours north of Sydney to Gympie in southern Queensland.

The surge in house prices is seeing tradies with big mortgages switch to One Nation from the Liberal and National parties, along with some older, conservative sea changers and renters in their fifties, Redbridge director of strategy Kos Samaras told The Nightly.

“Housing’s an issue. You’ve got one group that’s renting into their fifties so they are pretty pissed off about life, full stop,” he said.

These are also the voting groups disenchanted with high levels of overseas immigration who are typically older, without a university degree and working class.

“That is effectively the fertile ground for One Nation. They feel the Liberal Party has let them down economically,” Mr Samaras said.

Griffith University politics lecturer Paul Williams said One Nation appealed to mainly white voters in difficult circumstances who hated the major parties.

“They find life tough. They’re low-information voters and they feel that the major parties are somehow corrupt or elites, uninterested in ordinary Australians and Hanson’s got incredible air time,” Dr Williams told The Nightly.

Polling company DemosAU says One Nation could potentially grab up to 12 seats off the Nationals, the Liberal Party or Labor, and five of these electorates are in regional areas with some of Australia’s steepest population growth.

This shows housing shortage pressures are potentially shaping up as a sleeper issue at the next Federal election, due in 2028.

While Sydney and Melbourne receive the biggest share of overseas migrants, Australia’s two biggest cities also make up the largest outflow to regional areas.

The two cities together accounted for 86 per cent of the outflow from capital cities in the year to September 2025, Regional Australia Institute data showed.

Using Commonwealth Bank customer data, they have also revealed the regional areas receiving the biggest inflow of new residents, by local government areas.

Fraser Coast

The Fraser Coast, covering Hervey Bay north of Brisbane, saw a 17 per cent annual increase in new residents from other parts of Australia.

This area of southern Queensland, near K’gari (previously known as Fraser Island) is also Australia’s fourth most popular region for internal migration from other parts of Australia, behind only the Sunshine Coast, Geelong and Lake Macquarie near Newcastle.

This local government area also falls within the Federal electorate of Hinkler, where One Nation’s primary vote stood at 31 per cent in October and November, with the DemosAU poll taken before the December 14 Bondi Beach massacre.

Were an election held now, Nationals MP David Batt would be in danger, with polling showing One Nation winning this electorate with 57 per cent of the two-party vote after preferences.

This electorate is also home to a hot real estate market with median house prices in the Hervey Bay suburb of Torquay soaring by 12.6 per cent during the year to January to $755,815, Cotality data showed.

Hunter Valley, NSW Mid North Coast

The vast Nationals-held electorate of Lyne, stretching from Maitland west of Newcastle to areas just south of Port Macquarie on the NSW Mid North Coast, covers three local government areas with some of Australia’s biggest increases in internal migration.

It takes in areas of Maitland City Council which was Australia’s fourth most popular area for internal migration, following a 6.2 per cent annual population increase.

In Bolwarra, north of the Hunter River, the median house prices during the past year has risen by 15.5 per cent to $1.09 million.

The story is similar in the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council area on the NSW Mid North Coast, which had an 11.9 per cent annual increase in new residents, making it the ninth most popular region for those moving from another part of Australia.

The seat of Lyne also takes in the MidCoast Council, Australia’s 11th most popular area for internal migration.

House prices are surging in more affordable parts of this electorate that are slightly inland, with Taree’s mid-point house price climbing by 12.3 per cent during the past year to $515,029, which is still attainable for an average-income earner.

With One Nation having 25 per cent of the primary vote in Lyne, it could conceivably win this electorate after preferences with 52 per cent of the two-party vote, ousting first-term Nationals MP Alison Penfold.

Cessnock

A one to two-hour drive south, Cessnock is Australia’s 10th most popular relocation area and falls within the Labor-held seat of Hunter, where One Nation’s primary vote is at 30 per cent.

The two-party vote is tied at 50:50 and a close count could see sitting member Dan Repacholi narrowly lose an electorate Labor has held continuously since 1910.

House prices at Cessnock in the Hunter Valley have soared by 13.8 per cent during the past year to $677,420.

Toowoomba

Toowoomba, west of Brisbane, has seen a whopping 36.7 per cent annual increase in internal migration, making it Australia’s 15th most popular place to relocate to.

It falls within the Federal seat of Groom, where One Nation has a primary vote of 26 per cent, just one percentage point below the Liberal National Party.

After preferences, One Nation is in front with 51 per cent of the vote, which would edge out sitting Liberal MP Garth Hamilton.

In downtown Toowoomba, the mid-point house prices has soared by 20.6 per cent during the past year to $776,115.

Gympie

Gympie, Australia’s 16th most popular local government area for internal migration, falls within the Federal electorate of Wide Bay, where One Nation’s primary vote of 29 per cent beats that of the LNP on 25 per cent, tied with Labor.

This would be enough to see One Nation win with 58 per cent of the vote after preferences, ousting sitting member Nationals member Llew O’Brien.

In central Gympie, the middle house prices has soared by 15.9 per cent to $646,232 in a year.