Triumphant Labor told to keep campaigning as demoralised Coalition returns home contemplating leadership

Parliament’s long summer break has begun with government MPs under instructions to keep working hard over the festive season, while their dejected opposition counterparts contemplate how long Liberal leader Sussan Ley should remain in the job.

Labor members flew out of Canberra on Friday buoyed by continuing strong opinion poll results and a last-minute legislative win, after securing support from the Greens to pass a long-awaited overhaul of environmental laws.

On the other side Coalition MPs departed the capital at the end of a year where their numbers in the lower house fell to just 42 following another thumping election defeat and Barnaby Joyce’s decision to quit the Nationals to become an independent.

Despite commanding an imposing 94 members in the House of Representatives, Labor MPs have been reminded that to stay in power in the modern era means that “continuous campaigning” is essential, even over Christmas.

In a series of briefings this week, Labor’s National Secretary Paul Erickson has outlined the party’s latest polling data to his parliamentarians and reminded them that “delivering” on election policies will be a priority for the year ahead.

“The message we’re getting is that it’s still too early to take these favourable poll results seriously, because the electorate has only just voted us back in - but they will be looking for results in the new year,” one Labor marginal seat holder tells The Nightly.

Another Labor MP fears a worsening economic outlook and the spectre of rising interest rates could hurt the government badly in 2026 and nominates more affordable housing as the number one policy priority next year.

“While the other side is in disarray and it could get worse for them, we should always remember that things can move very quickly in politics”, the government frontbencher says.

Earlier in the week the Prime Minister also urged his caucus colleagues to get out in their electorates and work hard during the break by talking about cost-of-living help, road safety, natural disasters, the social media ban and better funding for schools.

“If people are having a holiday, they’re still on their phones, there’s still a level of engagement, and it’s still important to be making the case (for the Government),” Anthony Albanese said in the final caucus meeting of the year on Tuesday.

The Prime Minister also highlighted the Coalition’s mistake in the lead up to this year’s election of choosing to “stop working in January,” as he thanked colleagues and “the entire labour movement” for helping to win a massive majority in May.

Labor party hardheads say the modern media cycle means that the days of voters “switching off” over summer are over because the population remains politically engaged, particularly through online news.

In previous years the Labor party machine has paid particular interest to marginal electorate holders known informally as the “Greens seats group” where special attention is focussed on the threat posed by the minor party.

Following this year’s election in which the Greens lost three lower house seats, the group has been loosely remodelled as the “Teals seats”, where progressive independent candidates backed by the Climate 200 movement are considered the main danger.

After several Liberal MP lost their seats to Teal candidates in the 2022 election, this year Labor members in the West Australian seat of Fremantle and the ACT seat of Bean were also close to being forced out by progressive independent challengers.

Government strategists fear well-funded Teal candidates are likely to mount even stronger pushes at the next election, which is likely to be held sometime in 2028, but are also wary the Greens could again pose a threat in certain seats.

For the Opposition the Teals continue to present a massive headache, and the Coalition’s recent decision to ditch support for net-zero is likely to strengthen the position of Climate 200-backed candidates in wealthy, progressive inner-city seats.

Adding to their woes, for the first time ever Labor now leads the Coalition as the preferred party on taxation, economic management and the cost of living, according to the long-running Australian Electoral Study, which was unveiled this week.

In the final week of parliament coalition strategists had tried to keep the political focus on rising energy bills and the cost of living, but distractions such as Mr Joyce’s defection have made the job difficult.

Next year the opposition’s job is likely to be easier if the Government cannot bring down inflation, but Coalition MPs will be closely watching their leader Sussan Ley in the early months of 2026 to see how she prosecutes the case against Labor.

Before Parliament returns on February 3, another historic event is scheduled to take place – as Mr Albanese becomes the first Prime Minister since Federation to get married while in office.

Inside Labor circles anticipation is growing of an imminent wedding, likely at either the Lodge in Canberra or Kirribilli in Sydney, with the Prime Minister recently indicating his big day with partner Jodie Haydon would happen before year’s end.

On the final sitting day of the year, the soon-to-be groom walked from his official residence to Parliament and declared: “What a beautiful environment. It’s a good day for the environment”.

An even more beautiful day for the Prime Minister and his fiancé is fast approaching.