Donald Trump, Russia and the Shadow Fleet: How a seized oil tanker exposed a new global confrontation

Donald Trump’s ability to multitask as he junks yesterday’s world order continues to stun.

After launching a successful weekend raid to capture Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, the US President set about bedding down his capture of the Latin American country’s oil supplies with another military mission — this time near British waters.

In a remarkable operation in the Atlantic Ocean between Scotland and Iceland, the US Coast Guard and the US military boarded and captured a rusting oil tanker, Motor Vessel Bella 1.

Bella 1 was part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” the collection of ships that used to transport Russian oil around the world, flouting Western sanctions imposed after Vladimir Putin launched his illegal invasion of Ukraine in Februrary 2022. The US had sanctioned it for previously transporting Iranian oil.

Flying under the flag of Guyana, and therefore stateless, meaning foreign authorities can board it without having to seek permission from a flag state, as is required under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Bella 1 left Iran on August 1 bound for Venezuela — presumably to collect oil.

When she arrived in the Caribbean Sea, the US tried to interdict her a few days before Christmas, as part of the Trump Administration’s blockade of Venezuelan oil and pressure campaign on the regime led by the now-captured Maduro.

Bella 1 fled and went dark, meaning the crew disabled her maritime tracking Automatic Identification System (AIS).

Along the way, the crew painted over her name and renamed her Marinera. Russia’s Ministry of Transport confirmed it had granted Bella 1 “temporary permission” to sail under a Russian flag on Christmas Eve. This move both confirmed that it belonged to their shadow fleet but was aimed at trying to prevent the US from boarding it without Russian permission.

The tactic did not deter the Trump administration.

“Motor Tanker Bella I, has been trying to evade the Coast Guard for weeks, even changing its flag and painting a new name on the hull while being pursued, in a desperate and failed attempt to escape justice,” Kristi Noem, US Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the Coast Guard, said in a post on X.

“The heroic crew of the USCGC Munro pursued this vessel across the high seas and through treacherous storms — keeping diligent watch, and protecting our country with the determination and patriotism that make Americans proud.”

Ms Noem released video of the military boarding and seizure of Bella 1, and the US Coast Guard distributed footage of Cutter Munro shadowing the much larger tanker.

Ms Noem said the world’s criminals were on notice and that the US would pursue narco-terrorists.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi said that the crew were under full investigation and that criminal charges would be pursued.

“The Department of Justice is monitoring several other vessels for similar enforcement action—anyone on any vessel who fails to obey instructions of the Coast Guard or other federal officials will be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” she said on X.

Russia, through its Ministry of Transport, said it lost communication with the vessel shortly after the US boarded the ship and complained about the act.

“In accordance with the provisions of UNCLOS, the high seas are governed by the principle of freedom of navigation, and no state has the right to use force against vessels duly registered under the jurisdiction of other states,” the Ministry said on Telegram.

It is New Year holiday in Russia, meaning there was no immediate response from the Kremlin. But Mr Putin’s response is the one to watch.

His actions suggest alarm. The Wall Street Journal, citing a US official, reported that the Russians sent a submarine and other naval assets to escort Marinera, which was floating with her hull above water, meaning she was carrying no oil.

It is worth remembering too that The New York Times, citing two people, reported that on New Year’s Eve the Russians made a formal diplomatic request to the State Department that the coastal chase end.

But the Americans did not recognise the Russian registration and viewed Marinera as stateless.

“It was a fake Russian oil tanker; they basically tried to pretend to be a Russian oil tanker in an effort to avoid the sanctions regime,” Vice President JD Vance told Fox News.

This is where it gets intriguing. Because that’s a lot of hardware and diplomatic capital for Moscow to have spent on what is supposedly an empty lemon of a ship that does not even belong to Russia.

Unless, of course, it was carrying something or someone from Iran that never made it to Venezuela that the Russians felt needed their protection, however impotent that turned out to be.

At the end of last year, the Spanish newspaper La Verdad and Maritime Executive reported on a Spanish investigation into the sinking of another Russian shadow fleet vessel, the Ursa Major.

Spanish investigators noted discrepancies between the density of what the ship’s master said was the cargo and aerial images that suggested otherwise.

La Verdad cited documents that said the Spanish identified the cargo as nuclear submarine reactors, likely bound for North Korea. This may have been in return for the North Korean troops that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has sent to Russia to fight Putin’s war against Ukraine.

Mr Putin has been benefiting from Mr Trump’s obvious sympathies with, if not envy of, authoritarian leaders. But the Russian leader’s wartime bedfellows, specifically those in Pyongyang, Tehran and Caracas have placed him in direct confrontation with Mr Trump’s aims for the first time.

Later the same evening, US time, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham emerged from a one-on-one “very productive meeting” with Mr Trump with good news.

“He greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that I have been working on for months with Senator Blumenthal and many others,” Mr Graham said.

“This bill will allow President Trump to punish those countries who buy cheap Russian oil fuelling Putin’s war machine.

“This bill would give President Trump tremendous leverage against countries like China, India and Brazil to incentivise them to stop buying the cheap Russian oil that provides the financing for Putin’s bloodbath against Ukraine.”

Mr Graham noted that the Presidential blessing was well timed. Indeed, it is, coming one day after the most encouraging progress in the peace negotiations to date was made in Paris at a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The leaders agreed on security guarantees, monitoring and enforcing any ceasefire as well as Ukraine’s reconstruction plans. But what territory Russia gains remains an outstanding obstacle. Importantly, though, Jared Kushner said the plan had his father-in-law’s support.

“This does not mean we will make peace, but peace would not be possible without the progress that was made here today,” Kushner said, underlining that deterring Russia had to be genuine and was key to preserving Ukraine’s security and bringing about real peace.

Mr Trump’s move on Venezuela could turn out to be a bigger piece in the puzzle than first imagined.

On one hand, it’s crass, ugly, an abuse of American dominance and is nothing more than a naked neo-imperialistic grab for fossil fuels and natural resources. His stated goal to have US companies plunder Venezuela’s oil industry, then use those proceeds to buy American goods on behalf of Venezuela, is villainous as it sounds.

And now buoyed by his success, he has revived his threats to take over Greenland for America’s national security. Denmark, which administers Greenland, responded angrily, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warning that a NATO ally attacking a fellow member would collapse the Alliance (a move that would spell all of Putin’s Christmases come at once).

Five European leaders joined Ms Frederiksen in a statement reminding the US that Greenland belonged to Greenland. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet the Danes next week, after the White House didn’t rule out using military force but said it always preferred diplomacy first. (The US wants to purchase Greenland.)

Ahead of these diplomatic talks, Mr Trump released a social media post seemingly forgetting the sacrifices Europeans made for the US in its global war on terror in Afghanistan when he said he doubted (in capital letters) that “NATO would be there for us if we really needed them”.

He added that the only country that Russia and China feared was the US and that Russia would have all of Ukraine by now if not for his involvement. He may be right and clearly has little regard for the damage these comments do in undermining Article 5 — NATO’s sacred pledge that an attack on one is considered an attack on all.

This go-it-alone, we’re-the-biggest-dog-in-the-parking-lot shtick has enchanted MAGAites who see it as a revival of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, in which the US dominates the Western Hemisphere.

But America First is already crashing with the reality that the threats it faces in its own neighbourhood are backed and financed by the bad actors menacing the Indo-Pacific and the European continent, and a nuclear-ambitious Iran in the Middle East.

Take the seizure of Marinera or Bella 1. Who did the US have to call upon for help in staging the mission on the Atlantic’s freezing high seas?

“Following a request from the US, I authorised the use of UK bases and the deployment of Royal Navy and RAF assets to support the operation, including airborne surveillance and RFA Tideforce,” UK Defence Secretary John Healey told the House of Commons.

“This ship, with a nefarious history, is part of a Russian-Iranian axis of sanctions evasion which is fuelling terrorism, conflict and misery from the Middle East to Ukraine.”

Hours after the ship’s seizure, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with President Trump and couched the joint operation not as geopolitical but as part of “efforts to crack down on sanctions busting”.

According to Downing Street, they also spoke about the progress on Ukraine and the US operation in Venezuela, and Sir Keir set out his position on Greenland.

Mr Trump might want to solely focus on his sphere of influence. But the seizure of Bella 1 that began last month in the Caribbean over Venezuela and Iran but ended in the Atlantic with UK support and gave Russia a scratch in the face, delivers a different reality.