LATIKA M BOURKE: Australia, we have a Kevin Rudd problem and Donald Trump won’t let us forget it anytime soon

Kevin Rudd is now officially a problem.

Mr Rudd’s historical insults have hit headlines in the United States and Britain, starting the firing gun on calls for him to resign as Ambassador to the United States.

On Wednesday, Donald Trump’s adviser Dan Scavino Jnr posted on X a GIF of an hourglass running out of time.

He was responding to an innocuous statement posted by Mr Rudd congratulating Donald Trump on his re-election to the White House.

It seemed harmless enough but Scavino was obviously referencing what was not said in that specific statement.

In the years following his dual ejections from the prime ministerial job, once at the hand of his colleagues, the second by the vote of the people, Mr Rudd has never left the limelight that he’s so successfully sought all his career.

And with good reason. Mr Rudd has contributed a lot and his post-political reinvention as a China scholar has demonstrated just how much he continues to offer.

It’s rare to attend an international security conference without hearing Mr Rudd’s name, and his recent works on China and how to manage the superpower competition underway between China and the US — The Avoidable War, and On Xi Jinping — mentioned and recommended.

Plenty of serious people around the world seek Mr Rudd’s insights on China and with good reason.

But when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese selected him to be Australia’s Ambassador to the United States following Labor’s election win in 2022, the decision was always the ticking time bomb Scarvino referenced in his post.

This is because Kevin Rudd spent much of his time between leaving politics and taking up in DC, crusading against right-wing figures, including the Murdoch media and its proprietor Rupert Murdoch as well as Donald Trump.

It was always easy to see these past worlds colliding with the new.

Rudd’s insults included calling Mr Trump a “village idiot,” a ”traitor to the West” and the “most destructive president in history.”

It was telling and embarrassing that the first act of Australia’s top diplomat on the morning of Trump’s political resurrection was to hastily delete his social media posts and media commentary tweets that were critical of Trump.

Why this did not happen when Mr Rudd became Ambassador, or when Donald Trump became the presumptive or actual nominee suggests Mr Rudd thought Kamala Harris would win and the Democrats, with whom the former Labor leader has worked well, would retain the White House.

When viewed from Trump-land that’s an added insult right there.

And the problem for the former prime minister is that this is just the latest of insults in a long line of many.

Mr Trump has indeed forgiven in the past. J.D. Vance who once wondered whether Mr Trump was “a cynical asshole like Nixon” or “America’s Hitler” is now his Vice-President-elect.

Similarly, the once-derided “Little Marco”, Senator Marco Rubio is possibly in line to be named Secretary of State.

So while it’s possible Mr Trump could forgive Mr Rudd the better question is why would he?

There’s a reason why Mr Trump is magnanimous to Republicans who bend the knee, it’s a humiliation for his former critics and fortifies his takeover of the GOP.

Forgiving Kevin Rudd, presuming Mr Rudd would even apologise, serves neither of those interests.

For Mr Trump, the Ambassador is a foreigner, a left-winger and irrelevant to his grip on domestic power.

Mr Trump already put Mr Rudd on notice when asked about the critiques by Reform leader Nigel Farage for Britain’s GB News earlier this year.

“He won’t be there long if that’s the case,’ Mr Trump told Farage.

“I heard he was a little bit nasty, I hear he’s not the brightest bulb.

“If he’s at all hostile, he won’t be there long.”

The more serious problem for Australia is that Mr Rudd has given Team Trump unnecessary leverage over Australia for no good reason.

And we know that even though Mr Trump has a higher regard for Australia compared to the US’ other allies, we also know that he is willing to apply his transactional approach to the bilateral relationship.

We saw this during his infamous call with former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who successfully but forcefully had to negotiate with Mr Trump over why he should honour Barack Obama’s deal to take in Australia’s unwanted asylum seekers.

Trump 2.0 is threatening to impose blanket tariffs on all goods imported into America and 60 per cent on goods from Australia’s largest trading partner — China, whose economy Mr Trump’s hawkish advisers are determined to weaken to guarantee US supremacy.

Australia has a direct stake in this looming trade war.

As Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the Australian Institute of International Affairs gala dinner on Monday night Australian prices and economic growth would suffer in this scenario.

In preparation for the potential return of President Trump, the Treasurer commissioned modelling in September to assess what effect Trump’s tariffs would have. He won’t release that figure.

But he did say it would have a “substantial” impact globally, and for Australia, would mean “a small reduction in our output and additional price pressures.”

“We wouldn’t be immune from escalating trade tensions that might ensue,” the Treasurer warned.

Mr Chalmers, who worked for Wayne Swan, an ally of Julia Gillard who helped lead the coup against Mr Rudd in 2010, went on to lavish praise on Mr Rudd.

“Kevin is doing an excellent job as Australia’s Ambassador to the United States,” he said.

Mr Chalmers said that during his recent trip to Washington, Mr Rudd had hosted an after-dinner chat with Trump’s potential Treasury pick Scott Bessent.

“We had a long discussion after dinner, at the Ambassador’s Residence, two Thursdays ago,” Mr Chalmers recalled.

“Getting more than an hour with a key member of President Trump’s economic team 12 days before the election was a very valuable opportunity.

“We spoke about monetary policy, inflation, and tariffs and trade.”

The Treasurer is right to underline this example to show how well Mr Rudd has done in the job.

There is widespread recognition for the role he played in helping secure congressional support in AUKUS, which at one point looked in jeopardy by MAGA Republicans.

But this is Trump-world now, and Mr Trump is the ultimate transactor, which means a shift in how our relationship operates to one of constant negotiation.

And Mr Rudd’s historical critiques have now caught the eye of MAGA-land which means Australia has ceded, unnecessarily, leverage ahead of any deal-making.

The Federal opposition has wisely not called for Mr Rudd to go.

And several Liberal figures including former prime minister Tony Abbott have rushed to Rudd’s defence.

“I would be surprised if there is any pressure from the Americans to change our ambassador,” Mr Abbott told his Australia’s Future podcast.

“I have no reason to think that Kevin is not doing a good job at present.

“He will do whatever he humanly can to win over senior people in the incoming administration.

“And he’s already done everything he humanly can to row back his previous ill-advised remarks about the incoming president.”

And Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said Australia, not the US, will decide who represents the country abroad.

He is right. But there is another option, as former Liberal Premier Jeff Kennett said: “Kevin Rudd should stand down . . . in an act of decency to the Albanese government that appointed him, to the President-elect of the United States, and to the interests of Australians his appointment represents.”

Unfortunately, Australia now has a Kevin problem, and one that was entirely of Anthony Albanese’s making.