The New York Times: The five key points holding up US-Iran peace deal

The United States and Iran have signalled that they are moving closer to a deal to end the war in the Middle East. But neither country has released a copy of the possible deal and, as of Monday morning it remained unclear exactly what they had agreed to — or if they had agreed to much at all.

In interviews, US and Iranian officials described basic elements of a deal differently. Notably, they portrayed discussions about the future of the nuclear program — and Iran’s existing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium — in divergent terms.

Here are five of the main issues at stake, and the positions each side has revealed at this point.

1. Iran’s nuclear program

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said Iran must give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which the United States and Israel fear could be used to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has resisted.

One big question is what Iran would do with its existing stockpile of enriched uranium. It has about 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, and also roughly 11 tonnes of other uranium that has been enriched at various levels, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

A US official told reporters on Sunday (local time) that the United States and Iran have agreed in principle to a deal that would include a commitment from Iran to dispose of its highly enriched uranium. The mechanism for disposal is still being negotiated, the official said.

Another question is whether Iran could continue to enrich uranium in the future.

The US official on Sunday said the deal does not stipulate a moratorium on enrichment, noting that the issue would be addressed in future talks. In previous rounds of negotiations, Washington has sought at least a 20-year commitment from Iran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio signalled on Sunday that the Trump administration was prepared to accept an interim agreement that didn’t immediately take away Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons.

“You can’t do a nuclear thing in 72 hours on the back of a napkin,” Mr Rubio said in a brief interview during a visit to India.

Mr Rubio suggested that the United States could renew its threats to attack Iran if the negotiations do not bear fruit within two months.

But three senior Iranian officials said Saturday that nothing involving the nuclear stockpile had been agreed to.

Iran had originally baulked at including any agreement on its highly enriched uranium in the initial phases of a deal.

The three Iranian officials, speaking anonymously, told The New York Times on Saturday that all nuclear matters would be negotiated within 30 to 60 days.

It was not clear whether the proposal the Iranian officials said they had agreed upon was the same draft memorandum that Mr Trump posted about on Saturday, or that the US official referred to Sunday.

2. Control of the Strait of Hormuz

Before the United States and Israel started the war against Iran on February 28, the strait was open, and oil and gas shipments flowed freely through the vital waterway.

After the war started, Iran effectively closed the strait by striking commercial ships and halting traffic, causing a spike in energy prices worldwide. In April, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran’s ports and on Iranian-linked ships globally.

Now, Iran is trying to assert its control over the strait by charging for passage.

So one big question is whether Iran would reopen the strait. Another is whether the United States would end its blockade.

Iran’s effort to formalise, and monetise, its control over the waterway violates international law and shipping rules, which prohibit charging for safe passage through international waterways, experts say.

The Iranian officials said that under the proposed deal, Iran would allow ships to pass through the strait without payment — for now. But, in turn, the United States would have to lift its blockade.

Mr Trump on Sunday signalled that the United States could be open to ending its naval blockade of Iranian ports but noted that he had ordered US negotiators not to rush to secure an agreement.

“The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached,” he wrote on social media.

3. Frozen Iranian assets

Iran wants to recover assets frozen in overseas accounts by long-standing international sanctions.

The Iranians say the proposed deal would release $US25 billion in such assets.

At this stage, the United States is not offering to unfreeze any of Iran’s assets, the US official told reporters on Sunday, but the official said that the United States has made clear it is willing to begin that process if Iran follows through on its nuclear commitments.

The official declined to specify which or what amount of assets would be unfrozen.

Mr Trump has criticised former President Barack Obama, even within the past few weeks, for releasing $1.7b in frozen Iranian assets in 2015 under the deal his administration negotiated that had suspended most of Iran’s nuclear activity.

Mr Trump pulled out of that deal in 2018.

4. Iran-backed proxies

Iran supports militias around the region. The most powerful among them is Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel and Hezbollah have continued to clash in recent weeks despite a ceasefire in Lebanon.

The big question here is whether the proposed deal would halt the ongoing clashes. Another question is whether Iran would rein in its other regional proxies.

The Iranians say that under the proposed agreement, the fighting would stop on all fronts, including Lebanon.

The Americans have not mentioned Hezbollah or the proxies as being part of the proposal.

Still, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Sunday that he had spoken to Mr Trump the night before, who “reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon”.

5. Iran’s missiles

Israel and Gulf Arab states allied with Washington are in range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, so Iran’s missile stockpiles are a major issue, especially for Israel.

Early in the conflict, the Trump administration said Iran would have to give up its missiles or limit their range. But the deal under discussion now does not address Iran’s missile stockpile, the US official told reporters Sunday.

Israel’s leaders would be disappointed with any deal that does not cover missiles.

Mr Netanyahu said in his statement Sunday that he and Mr Trump remain aligned in seeking to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon but analysts noted that this deal under discussion now could fall far short of Israel’s aims.

An unresolved disagreement about missiles could sow the seeds for future conflict if Israel were to move to take out Iran’s missile capabilities on its own.