The TikTok test: What if Donald Trump isn’t a China Hawk after all

When Trump is inaugurated one of his many personally-invited guests will be Shou Zi Chew, who is slated to attend no less than three victory events.

The TikTok CEO has much to celebrate and plenty of reasons to feel grateful for Trump’s ascension.

“SAVE TIKTOK!” the President-elect posted on social media on the eve of his inauguration.

On Sunday he did just that, telling TikTok that he would issue an executive order on Monday after being sworn in that would give ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, a reprieve so it could stay online.

Trump thinks he can broker a deal to water down Chinese ownership.

“My initial thought is a joint venture between the current owners and/or new owners whereby the US gets a 50 per cent ownership in a joint venture set up between the US and whichever purchase we so choose,” he said on social media.

This means one of Donald Trump’s first actions in office will be to keep a Chinese-owned viral video app running despite Congress and the Supreme Court’ saying it is a national security risk.

For a President who won on the back of bread-and-butter issues of inflation, migration and decay in law and order, the priority given on his first day in power to saving a Chinese social media platform — given it was he who in 2016 established the political faultline on unfair Chinese competition and dominance — is puzzling.

And it raises the question, is Trump 2.0 the great China hawk after all?

This is what worries those working behind the scenes in allied and partner governments around the world, who struggle to convince politicians, colleagues, businesses and voters that they need to pay a price to help the US constrain the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) dominance over vital manufacturing and next-generation industries, as well as upholding the “rules-based order” that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are intent on upending.

Trump banned TikTok in his first iteration as President but since losing, and finding electoral success on the application in the lead-up to last November’s presidential election, as well as a donor in a major TikTok investor, he has a convert’s zeal about the app.

“As of today TikTok is back,” Trump told a rapturous rally in Washington DC.

“Can you believe what I’ll do to win an election?

“We went on TikTok and Republicans have never won the young vote, the youth vote — they win a lot of votes but they never won the youth vote — we won the youth vote by 36 points.

Decision-makers in other countries will think, ‘You want us to stand against China when you can’t get rid of one app with idiotic videos?’

“So I like TikTok. I like it. I like it.

“I had a slightly good experience. Wouldn’t you say?”

TikTok was equally grateful.

“As a result of President Trump’s efforts, TikTok is back in the US,” read the message that greeted users after the app was rebooted.

Hours earlier it staged a stunt in “going dark” in the US.

ByteDance did not have to render TikTok offline to comply with the new law, upheld unanimously by the Supreme Court, that ordered the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to part ways with the social media platform or face a gradual shutdown from January 19 that would begin with the Apple and Google stores not providing updates to the app over time.

Congress’s intent was not for a TikTok ban but for it to be operated by an American company and not one linked to the CCP, which could harvest the data and use it for hostile purposes against its superpower rival, as well as promote misinformation and narratives that deliberately sow division and further polarisation.

TikTok is forbidden in China, along with US social media sites X, YouTube, and Meta’s Facebook and Instagram.

So rather than sell and expose its algorithm to an American owner, something ByteDance had 270 days to do before the inauguration-eve deadline, the company chose to turn off the addictive short-form video app to the outrage of influencers, presumably in the knowledge that Trump would be their saviour.

Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping discussed TikTok in a phone call on Friday just before the Supreme Court gave its ruling.

“They agreed to work together on this,” Mike Waltz, the incoming US National Security Adviser and one of the so-called ‘grown-ups’ and China hawks in Trump’s second administration told CBS.

Acknowledging the “very top-down authoritarian system” in China, Waltz said: “Every company in China has, in some way or some form, has to report to, or has a member of the Chinese Communist Party on its board.”

Waltz insisted Trump was intent on finding an American buyer.

Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute who specialises in United States–China relations and author of Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance, told The Nightly that Trump was following his instincts and love of brokering a deal.

“That’s fine, as long as he operates within the confines of the law,” Mr Sobolik said.

“He needs to achieve a clean break between TikTok and ByteDance.

“A risk mitigation deal for data security would likely be insufficient.

“A corporate restructuring needs to take place.”

But Michal Bogusz, a China expert at the Polish-based think tank Centre for Eastern Studies said Trump’s interventions to save TikTok sent a terrible message to America’s allies.

“In Washington, I don’t think everyone yet understands how ridiculous this looks and how it will make it harder for Americans to build a united front against China,” he said.

“Decision-makers in other countries will think, ‘You want us to stand against China when you can’t get rid of one app with idiotic videos?’”

Notably, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the UK Goverment swiftly ruled out following the US after the Supreme Court ruling.

Mr Sobolik acknowledged Trump’s methods carried risks.

“Trump has already voiced concerns about CCP influence in the Panama Canal,” he said.

“There are plenty of reasons to expect he’ll take a tough position on US - China relations.

“But he needs to get TikTok right, especially if he wants America’s allies and partners to join a broader counter-CCP effort.”

“Getting TikTok right” would require convincing Xi to give up the app.

So Trump risks being exposed as squishy, and for no defensible reasons, when it comes to China if he fails a first test that was never even necessary to set for himself.