US Election Donald Trump the maverick versus mainstream Kamala Harris as allies anticipate US vote
Australia hopes the relationship with its most powerful ally can smooth over any bumps rising from the presidential election.
Polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck-and-neck for the White House, with Americans set to cast their ballots on November 5.
Mr Trump’s views were out of touch with the mainstream and could pose a risk to Australia’s national interests, international policy expert Michael Fullilove said.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.If he regains the presidency, it would be “extremely discombobulating for us allies around the word”, the Lowy Institute director said.
“Mr Trump is profoundly sceptical of alliances, he has a weird affinity for strongmen,” he told AAP.
“It’s all personal and it’s all transactional so that affects the reliability the rest of the world associates with the US.”
It would leave allies and leaders questioning how best to interact with a Trump administration, Dr Fullilove said.
“Should we be critical? Should we be sycophantic? How do we manage this very difficult, complicated relationship?” he said.
A president hostile to free trade could also send shocks through the international system, Dr Fullilove said, with Mr Trump spruiking tariffs against China.
This would in turn hurt Australia as China’s massive economic influence meant “if they get the flu we’re going to get a cold”, he said.
While Ms Harris has more mainstream views, she did remain somewhat of an unknown quantity regarding foreign policy as she wasn’t a major player in the field during her vice presidency, he said.
“But based on speeches we expect her to be a conventional US president,” he said.
The AUKUS agreement through which Australia will receive nuclear-powered submarines from America isn’t doomed under Mr Trump, but diplomats in Canberra would be more nervous under his presidency, he said.
The Republican has no personal stake in AUKUS and an affinity for renegotiating deals made by his predecessors, while Ms Harris would be more likely to stick to the parameters agreed to by the administration she was part of, he said.
Dr Fullilove expressed concern that civil unrest could follow a Trump loss, although a clear result and resounding defeat at a second presidential election could drain a lot of his momentum.
