Vic Premier Ben Carroll just gave Liberal leader Jess Wilson what she asked for but did not want

New Victorian Premier Ben Carroll looks like he is going to give Liberal leader Jess Wilson the top item on her political wish list: a royal commission into corruption in state infrastructure projects that will investigate decisions by ministers in the Allan and Andrews Labor governments.

On Wednesday morning, before even selecting his cabinet, Mr Carroll said the judicial inquiry would include actions by large construction companies, the government, public servants, labour hire businesses and unions.

“I want exhaustive terms of reference,” he told reporters at a Kmart outlet in central Melbourne. “No stone left unturned.”

Although there hasn’t been time to put the scope of the inquiry in writing, Mr Carroll’s approach undercuts the Opposition’s claim he plans a “cover-up commission” to protect a decade of Labor power in Victoria from scrutiny.

Shadow attorney-general James Newbury on Tuesday said on ABC radio: “I’ll bet my bottom dollar the terms do not include an investigation into ministerial decisions, the departmental decisions, the Labor Party or what money has flowed through from the CFMEU into the Labor Party.”

While Mr Carroll did not mention donations when he explained the inquiry’s scope this morning, by giving the Opposition what it asked for, he just cut off one of its strongest lines of attack at the start of what is, in effect, a four-month election campaign.

The decision carries almost no short-term cost for the Labor Government, which the Opposition argues must have been complicit in some ways in CFMEU-linked corruption on what is know as the Big Build, hundreds of state-financed projects costing the State more than $100 billion.

A similar Queensland inquiry into the construction branch of the union took four months from announcement to the first public witness. Assuming a similar time frame in Victoria, no hearings will take place before election day on November 28.

Even if the Opposition is correct and senior Labor ministers ignored or facilitated corruption, any evidence they did so will not be shared with Victorians before they vote.

If the Coalition wins the election — the latest poll has it ahead 52 to 48 per cent — then Labor will have the tactical advantage of choosing the royal commissioner and defining the scope of their inquiry.

Reports, not convictions

Royal commissions have great strengths and some weaknesses.

In some ways they are the ultimate political response to a problem. They can compel witnesses to answer questions in public, a power not possessed by the police or courts, creating the opportunity to force senior politicians to respond to damning evidence, including confidential documents and phone taps.

Anti-corruption lawyer Geoffrey Watson, who received threats after exposing CFMEU corruption, said he was “elated” at the decision. He said he was particularly interested in seeing big construction companies that cooperated with the union investigated.

“This obviously needs to be sufficiently broad to capture not only the role of the CFMEU but the role of organised crime and contractors, who have been greatly advantaged and should be brought in to explain their windfall profits,” he told The Nightly.

Lying to a royal commission, unlike journalists or voters, is extremely dangerous.

If caught, the questioner loses the immunity for any admissions they make, an attribute of royal commissions that limits their usefulness for criminal prosecutions.

But they can be slow and expensive, and produce reports, not convictions. Mr Carroll has clearly considered this problem — before being elected he said a royal commission would take too long — which may be why he has also promised to appoint a special prosecutor.

Mr Carroll’s willingness to allow his Labor Party predecessors to be subjected to the fearful powers of a royal commission is a sign of his determination to fight the election as hard as he can, and helps explain why Labor MPs elevated him on Tuesday.

Work underway

But the perception Jacinta Allan was not trying to clean up the construction industry is unfair.

Police task force Hawk was created and upgraded when she was premier. Focusing on the construction industry, it has laid 93 charges, according to the government. The Labour Hire Authority, which Ms Allan expanded and gave extra powers to, has cancelled the licences of 164 businesses that supply workers to construction projects, an industry allegedly infiltrated by motorcycle gangs.

On her last full day as premier, she convinced cabinet to allocate $170m to an organised crime agency within the police that will incorporate Taskforce Hawk and other important investigations.

Hunting down criminals is slow work, Ms Allan was not able to convince Victorians she had the problem under control.

As a result, she finds herself out of a job, and potentially in a witness box explaining how the biggest construction program in the state’s history may have become infested with corruption.

Politics is brutal, and is about to get even more so in Victoria.