Israel has rolled into Gaza with tanks. So what is it hoping to achieve

Israel’s move to take control of the Rafah crossing into Egypt has sparked sharp debate about its end goal: Is this the start of a long-threatened invasion of the southern Gaza city, or an attempt to pressure Hamas to ease conditions for a cease-fire and the release of hostages?

The answer is both, according to Israeli officials close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the military, who spoke about internal deliberations on condition of anonymity.

Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to allow the more than 1.4 million civilians sheltering in Rafah to move to safety before dispatching troops into the city, where he contends as many as 8,000 Hamas fighters are entrenched along with their leaders and more than 100 Israeli hostages. On Monday, Israel ordered some civilians to leave so that an attack can get underway.

But international negotiators, including from the US, are at a delicate phase in talks to pause or end the seven-month war - a deal that would include the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners and an increase of humanitarian aid to the embattled coastal strip.

On Monday night, as horse-drawn wagons heaped with bedding trundled out of Rafah and Israeli tanks began their advance, Hamas made a shock announcement that it had accepted a cease-fire deal.

Israel’s war cabinet held an emergency session to assess the offer - and quickly rejected it. That was due to two details: the initial release of 33 Israelis could be made up of dead bodies rather than living hostages, and a permanent rather than temporary cease-fire would be baked into the deal - a long-held Israeli red line.

The tanks resumed their movements and took control of the Egypt crossing on Tuesday morning, blocking the movement of both people and aid.

Mr Netanyahu said in a statement Tuesday that “the Hamas offer yesterday was designed to prevent our forces from entering Rafah. That didn’t happen.” He said the latest Hamas offer is “very far from Israel’s essential demands.”

That was later contradicted by the US. In a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US assessment is that the two sides “should be able to close the remaining gaps.” He said Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns would represent the US in a new round of negotiations, where Israel is also expected to be present.

“Hamas responded yesterday,” Mr Kirby said. “There were amendments offered. And that’s the task of negotiating. That’s what negotiations are all about.”

An Israeli military spokesmen described its activities in Rafah as a “precise counterterrorism operation” following intelligence that indicated the crossing was being used “for terrorist purposes.”

Benny Gantz, a centrist opposition leader who’s part of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, called initial moves into Rafah “an integral part of our continued efforts and our commitment to bring the hostages back.”

That spoke to Israel’s dual objective: to destroy Hamas and bring home the remainder of those taken by the Iran-backed militant group on October 7.

A poll published by the Maariv newspaper this week shows a majority - 54 per cent to 38 per cent - believe it’s more important to bring back the hostages than to launch the Rafah operation.

The powers mediating talks - which include Qatar and Egypt as well as the US - oppose a military operation in Rafah and are trying to find cease-fire conditions that both sides can accept, even on a temporary basis. Hamas says there can be no deal without an end to the war, while Israel says it can’t agree to that before eliminating Hamas - a goal set both in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attacks and to prevent a repeat incursion.

A formula appeared close over the weekend, but both sides reasserted their core positions. On Sunday, a dozen Hamas mortars and rockets from Rafah killed four Israeli soldiers. That enraged Israeli officials and sped up their decision to start a limited Rafah operation, several officials say.

“What happened shows why we have to go into Rafah and take apart the Hamas battalions there,” said Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Their ability to fire targeted projectiles at Israeli bases shows why they can’t be permitted to stay, he said.

About 240 Israelis and foreigners were abducted on October 7, and about half were returned during a cease-fire in late November. Of the remaining 130, a significant minority are thought by Israeli authorities to be dead.

’No Picnic’

Hamas, considered a terrorist group by the US and European Union, issued warnings on Monday that if Israel invades Rafah, it “will not be a picnic.”

Israel’s counterattack in Gaza has so far killed more than 34,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, and the US and other officials say that an assault on Rafah risks greatly increasing that number.

President Joe Biden has warned Israel not to launch such an attack without protecting civilians. During a visit to Tel Aviv last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “we’ve not seen such a plan.” A White House summary of a call Monday between Biden and Netanyahu said “the president reiterated his clear position on Rafah.”

An Israeli official said Mr Netanyahu understands why Mr Biden doesn’t want fighting underway in the middle of his reelection campaign, especially as pro-Palestinian protests gather pace across the US. But Mr Netanyahu considers it a strategic imperative to finish off the remaining Hamas fighters so the group can’t reorganise and attack again. That’s also the view of the far-right ministers who keep his coalition together, leaving him little wiggle room.

One official said the talk of invading Rafah is aimed at forcing Hamas leaders to agree to a temporary cease-fire in order to survive.

The US is telling Hamas that if a cease-fire starts, it will work hard to make it permanent. To Israel, it’s saying a pause in hostilities can pave the way for a bigger regional deal involving its recognition by Saudi Arabia.

As Israel urges Palestinian civilians to leave eastern Rafah and moves tanks into the city, Netanyahu is performing several tasks: preparing for a possible invasion, squeezing Hamas, keeping his coalition together, and trying to show he’s taking care of civilians. What follows remains unclear.