Sanae Takaichi: Japan elects first female leader, a hawk who promotes ‘Japan First’

Sanae Takaichi, a firebrand nationalist and security hawk, has been chosen as prime minister of Japan on Tuesday, becoming the nation’s first female head of government during an unusually rocky time in Japanese politics.

Ms Takaichi, 64, has succeeded Shigeru Ishiba, who said last month that he would step down after bruising electoral losses that cost the long-running Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) its coalition majority in both parliamentary chambers.

The parliament conducted its vote on a new prime minister Tuesday afternoon, and local reports suggested Takaichi had overcome last-minute attempts by opposition parties to derail her candidacy.

Her term will begin immediately after a ceremony with the emperor following the vote.

Ms Takaichi will hit the ground running with high-profile diplomatic visits, including a meeting with President Donald Trump early next week. Japanese prime ministers usually arrange a trip to Washington as early as possible in their tenure, but rarely with such a quick turnaround or with the added stresses of playing host.

A visit by the President of the United States - Japan’s security ally for seven decades - is a monumental event for Tokyo, and briefings for the prime minister are even more intensive with an unpredictable leader like Trump.

Earlier this year, Mr Ishiba cleared his schedule ahead of his first meeting with Mr Trump for more than 30 hours of study sessions that involved instruction on speaking in simple sentences to hold Mr Trump’s attention and gaming out demands Mr Trump may make, according to Japanese media.

But Ms Takaichi will have just three business days before Mr Trump is due to arrive in Tokyo. And there are big issues at stake, like how to move forward on a $US550 billion investment plan agreed under the new US-Japan trade agreement and whether Japan should pay more to host US troops.

“Takaichi’s road ahead promises to be extremely bumpy,” said Tomohiko Taniguchi, who advised former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and supported Ms Takaichi’s campaign.

“This is very much an unusual moment in Japanese politics.”

Meanwhile, Japanese officials plan on rolling out the red carpet to impress Mr Trump, including a meeting with Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace and a dinner at the State Guest House, according to Japanese media reports.

It will be a familiar itinerary for Mr Trump, who was the first foreign guest to meet with the emperor during his inaugural visit to Tokyo as President in 2019 - an experience Mr Trump described as a “great honour.”

Ms Takaichi and Mr Trump already have an obvious icebreaker: Their shared affinity for Abe, the late prime minister who forged a close friendship with Mr Trump during his first term. Ms Takaichi served in senior roles in Abe’s cabinet and is widely viewed within the LDP as his protégé and someone who is closely aligned with his political views.

And - like Mr Trump - Ms Takaichi has tapped into populist, anti-immigrant sentiments with a “Japan First” promise to prioritise Japan’s national interests and economy during a time of stagnant wages and rising prices.

The stance helped her appeal to her party’s right wing and solidify support for her base ahead of her election as LDP leader. Her approach is sure to hit a chord with Mr Trump, the “America First” president, analysts say.

Ms Takaichi believes in a strong US-Japan security alliance. But she faces a herculean task of dealing with demands from the Trump administration - some of which may collide with being “Japan First” - while building political support at home with a weakened LDP that is rapidly losing public confidence, experts say.

“Navigating the relationship with Trump is challenging for any leader, and she has such an early test with Trump visiting in the next week,” said Emma Chanlett-Avery, director for political-security affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“Takaichi’s biggest task is just going to be navigating the relationship with the United States and trying to sustain the alliance” in a way that “allows the alliance to survive, even if not thrive,” Ms Chanlett-Avery added.

US-Japan alliance

Experts say there are broad uncertainties about how the two capitals will work together, especially given the level of political instability in Japan. Ms Takaichi is the fourth Japanese prime minister in five years.

Unlike Abe, who enjoyed firm political footing at home while he weathered the ups and downs of Trump’s term, Ms Takaichi will lead a minority government, which is unusual for the LDP, a party that has been in power almost uninterrupted since its founding in 1955.

“You’re basically focused on your political survival,” Jeffrey Hornung, Japan lead for Rand’s National Security Research Division. “When all that’s happening, that sucks the air out of the alliance … because they’re just going to be largely focused on their domestic political situation, as opposed to working with the alliance.”

One of those uncertain areas is defence spending. Ms Takaichi believes in a strong Japanese defence, and her views may align with Mr Trump’s desire for countries to play a bigger role in their national security, experts say.

She has signalled a tough approach to neighbouring countries, like China and North Korea, but her views could also imperil relations with South Korea. Ms Takaichi is among Japan’s historical revisionists who minimise Imperial Japan’s wartime atrocities, and she helped edit history textbooks to tone down language that referred to Japanese aggression.

Defence spending will be an area where Ms Takaichi will have to tread carefully. The Trump administration has suggested it wants to significantly raise the amount of money Japan would spend to host US troops when negotiations begin next year, which may put the new prime minister in a bind, Ms Hornung said.

“If you have a leader who doesn’t have any sort of strong political base, it’s going to be hard for them to push back and to try to make counter arguments” to US demands, Ms Hornung said.

Another tricky area is the whopping $US550 billion investment deal under the US-Japan trade agreement. It remains unclear exactly how Tokyo plans to implement the investments, which amount to 10 times the nation’s defence budget.

Previously, Ms Takaichi took a more critical approach to the trade deal, suggesting she’d be willing to renegotiate some terms that do not serve Japan’s interests and calling on a “Japan First” approach to protecting its manufacturing industry to counter Mr Trump’s “America First” tariffs.

But experts say that while her “Japan First” slogan helped her rally right-wing support for her campaign, she is unlikely to pursue any renegotiations for the trade deal and instead would need to find a way to build public support for the deal that she initially criticised.

“You can’t overturn a deal that’s already been signed. If you tried to flip the table now, it would cost Japan much more,” said Kunihiko Miyake, research director and foreign policy expert at the Tokyo-based think tank Canon Institute for Global Studies.

First female prime minister

Ms Takaichi was elected the leader of the LDP earlier this month, which would have automatically made her the prime minister in previous years. But because the LDP is in the minority, the voting became complicated.

After the LDP’s 26-year partner, Komeito, quit the coalition, opposition leaders tried to coalesce around a challenger to Ms Takaichi. But their efforts fell apart when the LDP secured the support of the right-wing Japan Innovation Party - effectively ensuring Ms Takaichi would gain enough votes to win.

As the first female prime minister, Ms Takaichi will shatter the ultimate glass ceiling in Japanese public office - a significant feat in a rigidly patriarchal society.

But Ms Takaichi, who considers former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model, is not known to be an advocate of gender equality.

She has fought against allowing married couples to have different last names and against allowing members of the imperial family’s maternal line to ascend the throne - two key litmus tests for where politicians stand on gender issues.

After college, Ms Takaichi moved to the US to work as a congressional fellow in 1987 for former Congresswoman Pat Schroeder (Democrat). She briefly worked as a TV anchor after returning to Japan, then was elected to parliament in 1993.

Back then, politics was “a quintessentially Japanese chauvinistic, male-dominant world … smoke-filled rooms, wining and dining,” said Ms Taniguchi, the former Abe adviser.

Throughout her career, Ms Takaichi developed a reputation as a workhorse and policy wonk, rising through the LDP and to various top government positions. She now has the opportunity to evolve from a domestic policy expert to a visionary global leader, Ms Taniguchi said.

“Now is the time for her to begin developing her own timbre, her own caliber, as the top leader of the nation,” she said.

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