Brisbane Lions still on track for AFL three-peat after Lachie Neale drama, say Channel Seven experts

Brisbane will again be the team to beat as it chases a rare hat-trick of premierships, but look out for outsiders Fremantle and Sydney to make an AFL charge this season.

That’s the view of two of Channel Sevens expert commentators, 16 days before the ball is thrown up for the opening match of the season, Sydney’s clash with Carlton at the SCG.

Former Hawthorn and Port Adelaide forward Chad Wingard and decorated AFLW All-Australian Kate McCarthy are both strong believers in Brisbane’s ability to go back-to-back-to-back for the first time since Hawthorn from 2013-15 and the Lions mighty three-peat of 2001-03.

The Lions have endured a horror off-season with the summer headlines dominated by 2025 premiership hero Lachie Neale’s very public marriage breakdown.

WIngard said the Lions had improved their list after securing former West Coast forward Oscar Allen and Essendon ruckman Sam Draper as free agents, as well as young guns Daniel Annable and Cody Curtin through the draft.

Jarrod Berry, Jack Payne, Erick Hipwood and Keidean Coleman will also be pushing for spots after missing last year’s grand final win.

“I can’t see Brisbane not going back-to-back (again). I mean, you think about Oscar Allen and even the players that they had out of their grand final team,” Wingard said at Seven’s AFL season launch on Tuesday.

“I feel like they’ve got the just so much depth and they know what it takes. They had a slow start last year and just pulled their way back. It’s just been super impressive of what they’ve overcome.

“They’ve got a stacked team and a very depth orientated team.“

TABTouch lists Brisbane as the outright $4.75 favourite while Geelong, the team they thrashed in the grand final, are second in betting at $.850, with Gold Coast at $8.50 and Hawthorn at $9.

“Brisbane are clearly the team to beat before a ball’s been sort of kicked,’ said former Brisbane, St Kilda and Hawthorn player McCarthy. “It’d be hard to write them off.”

But McCarthy also likes Sydney ($11) in Dean Cox’s second year as Swans’ coach, and the Western Bulldogs ($17).

“I think the Swans are going to be pretty competitive this year with the changes that they’ve made in the off season. Really looking forward to seeing what they do,” she said.

“We saw in the latter half of last year, what they were able to do with all their personnel back and another preseason under Dean Cox. I think that only starts to push them further up the ladder as well.

“The Bulldogs, can they do what everyone expects them to do and put it together for a year? I think this could be the year that they’re able to do that. So I think a lot of those will be definitely be there towards the pointy end of the season.“

Wingard also rates the Cats, Hawks and Gold Coast.

“I feel like Geelong is going to be in there. I’m optimistic on the Hawks and probably Gold Coast. They are the ones that are going to be fighting for it.”

Fremantle, says Wingard and McCarthy, are genuine top-four candidates.

“It’s going to be tight. I think they’re either going to be top four or just outside. They found their groove late in the season last year, after a bit of a slow start,” Wingard said.

McCarthy’s take on the Dockers: “I reckon they can. We saw some glimpses of Luke Jackson as an inside mid (last year_ , and that’s going to continue this year, and I think they would have learnt a lot from last year and working things early in the season to then put it together late. I think they are every chance of making the top four this year.”

The AFL will introduce a raft of rule changes this season, expanding the bench to five players (with no substitute), taking a tougher stance on standing on the mark which bans players from reversing outside the protected zone and rucks being unable to cross the white line at centre ball ups.

But McCarthy thought the new last disposal rule out of bounds between the 50m arcs would have the biggest impact.

“Coming from a background of women’s footy, last touch out of bounds speeds it up a lot and I think we’re going to see some players use that very cleverly, especially with the ball rebounding back inside 50 after that kick out to space,” she said.

“I think that’s going to be one that really speeds up the game quite a lot.

“I’ve only had one sort of real look at the ruck rule change. I think teams are still working out too, how they can best utilise that and I think that’s going to be an interesting one because as soon as there’s rule changes, there’s teams that adapt quicker and there’s teams that don’t adapt.

“The stand rule, we might see a fair few 50s to start with with how aggressively that’s going to be umpired too.”