Kate McCarthy’s blockbuster AFLW grand final preview as North Melbourne and Brisbane go for glory
Well, we made it, folks! It is the last week of November and the AFLW grand final is here.
It is completely normal to feel a wave of déjà vu considering last year when we had the same match up at the same ground, which has once again sold out in 24 hours.
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We have the undefeated North Melbourne up against six-time grand finalists, Brisbane.
The Kangaroos are looking to become the first ever expansion side to win the AFLW premiership – something that would be fitting for a club who has invested in women’s football since (before) day one of their official entry in the competition.
While, Brisbane are playing in their third straight grand final, on the hunt for their third premiership.
Redemption the main storyline, but not just for North
When you look at the match-up, the main storyline would have to be the ultimate redemption for North Melbourne given the last time the Kangaroos lost a game was in last year’s AFLW grand final against the Lions. As with any grand final loss is, it was heartbreaking for the Roos, who led at three-quarter time but ultimately could not stop the final term surge of the Lions, who went on to win by 17 points. The Roos also had to play almost the entire game last year without Jenna Bruton, who suffered a torn Achillies in the opening minutes. It feels fitting for Bruton that she gets another chance to make her mark in a grand final this year.
The Roos made the most of their first shot at redemption in Round 1, dominating the Lions by a record margin of 44 points in front of a strong Brisbane crowd in Springfield. The Kangaroos were ruthless in their first hit out for the season and have pretty much carried that form for the remainder of the 2024 season. They have gone through the season undefeated and take a lot of momentum in with them after dismantling Port Adelaide in the first half to book their ticket to this year’s decider.
Don’t discount the fact that the Lions will also have a feeling of redemption driving them in Saturday’s clash, which seems crazy to say considering they are the reigning premiers. The Round 1 loss of 44 points to North Melbourne was the biggest defeat the club has ever experienced. Further to that, North’s score of 78 points was also the largest that the Lions have ever conceded. The Lions are a proud football club and would feel they have a point to prove after one of the more uncompetitive games we have seen their AFLW side play in its history.
Dynamic duos: Riddell and Garner
It has been business as usual for Jas Garner and Ash Riddell in 2024, picking up where they left off from last year. The dynamic duo has been a nightmare for opposition, averaging a combined 55 disposals, 11 clearances, 28 contested possessions and 10 score involvements. They have also both done damage on the scoreboard as well, Garner having kicked a career high 14 goals and Riddell chiming in with five goals, which has added another dimension to her game. In the previous three seasons combined, Riddell has only kicked three goals in total.
In the past four outings against the Lions, Garner has averaged 25.5 disposals, 323 metres gained and one goal per game. Garner was judged the second-best player on the ground last year in the grand final. Riddell’s growth this season resulted in her finishing runner-up to Ebony Marinoff in the league’s Best and Fairest Award. Both players are top 10 in the league for average disposals, contested possessions and score involvements. If you’re looking at who could win the game for the Kangaroos, look no further than Garner and Riddell. It is a case of “Por qué no los dos or why not both?” when it comes to answering that question.
Expect the unexpected
It has been the tricks up the sleeves of the Brisbane Lions coaching group and the versatility in their playing group that has helped them win some of the more difficult games in the past two seasons. In last year’s grand final, Lions captain Bree Koenan, a staple to the Lions defensive structure, found herself in the midfield after half-time playing a role on Jas Garner. Just last week, Jade Ellenger showed her versatility as a role player, going to Ebony Marinoff in the second half. In both finals so far, we have seen Courtney Hodder released into the midfield to get physical with her tackle pressure and also to use her speed to break the game open. Let’s not forget Cathy Svarc, who has proven to be the fire starter, or some may say the “spark”, to Brisbane’s attack when moved from the midfield to play as a forward.
The Lions have developed players, who have clearly trained in multiple positions across multiple lines, to allow them to play wherever they may be required mid-game to give their team the upper hand. You feel both teams will back their own system in to start the game, but keep an eye out for changes that may be made from Craig Stracevich, who is more than happy to take risks with positional shifts to win the game.
Respected coaches going head-to-head
Both Craig Stracevich and Darren Crocker have earned the respect of not only their own sides but their opposition and the wider AFLW community. Both coaches are AFL premiership players, Crocker with North Melbourne in 1996 and Starcevich with Collingwood in 1990. Crocker was this week crowned as the 2024 AFLCA AFLW Coach of the Year, an award voted on by all senior coaches in the league. It is clear talking to players and members of the North Melbourne program that Crocker is so well respected by all involved and clearly has had a huge role to play in getting the Roos to their second grand final in two seasons.
It is an award that Starcevich has won three times in his nine seasons as the Lions AFLW coach. Starcevich won alongside Scott Gowans in 2023 and won outright in 2022 (season seven) and 2021. Considering Stacevich is one of only two senior coaches to have overseen an AFLW club since the inception of the competition, it is clear he is held in incredibly high regard by his players and the AFLW. Look no further than the reactions of both playing groups towards their coaches after they were successful in their recent preliminary finals to see how much they mean to both clubs.
The stat that matters
Looking at the form of both teams coming into the game, it is difficult to separate them, however the one area I feel the game can be won and lost is the uncontested possession battle. The Lions are ranked third in uncontested possessions, while the Kangaroos are ranked fourth.
In Round 1 when both teams faced off, North Melbourne had 143 uncontested possessions, 39 more than the Lions, which is the most that Brisbane have conceded all season and the only time this year they have lost this stat.
Both teams are so potent in attack that if they are allowed to move the ball quickly through uncontested possession chains then they will create scoring opportunities. You feel the team that has the advantage in this area will have more opportunities for the game to look the way they want it to and ultimately have the ball in a position to kick a winning score.
The final word
All in all, you feel like this is going to be a grand final that is spoken about for many years to come. It has a real feeling that it will be one of the ages. I cannot see it being won by more than a kick at the most. I have changed my mind multiple times during the week when trying to tip a winner.
If I am honest, head vs heart, the head thinks the Lions have the advantage when it comes to being able to flip the magnets and the versatility they have within their playing group. However, this heart knows how it feels to lose back-to-back grand finals and I would never wish that upon anyone! This one is going to go truly down to the wire.
My tip: Lions by 2 points, however, I really won’t be disappointed either way come Saturday night. Both clubs are deserving winners ... Hey, can we have a draw?
Originally published on 7NEWS Sport
