The AFL teams most likely to make finals this September and what needs to happen to get them there

Ben McClellan

The Nightly

4 Min Read

20 Aug 2024

There are 10 teams vying for the top eight in the final round of the AFL season. Here's where they might end up. Credit: The Nightly

Few things are certain about the AFL finals next month except maybe one thing — Sydney are strong favourites to finish on top.

But even that is not a sure thing. If Adelaide thumps the league leaders the same way their cross-town rivals Port Adelaide did by more than 100 points then the Power could claim the top spot.

The race is down to 10 teams with ninth-placed Fremantle and 10th-placed Collingwood having very slim chances of scraping into the eight.

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The top eight teams going into round 24 are likely to stay that way going into the first round of the finals, but several games could have a huge bearing on who is playing their first week of the finals with a second chance card and who is playing sudden death.

The Port-Fremantle, GWS-Bulldogs, Geelong-West Coast and Carlton-St Kilda games loom as the matches that fans of all the finals hopefuls will be watching carefully.

The other games are: Melbourne-Collingwood, Hawthorn-North Melbourne, Richmond-Gold Coast (this game has no finals implications), Brisbane-Essendon and Sydney-Adelaide.

Here are the 10 contenders and a breakdown of their chances:

1. SYDNEY (64pts, 126.3%)

Should beat the Crows and secure the top spot.

2. PORT ADELAIDE (60pts, 114.2%)

Will be hoping the Bulldogs beat GWS and they can end Fremantle’s hopes in the final game of the season (though the Dockers’ chances may already be scuttled if the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues have already won their games). Port and GWS are playing for hosting rights in their likely qualification final.

LOWEST FINISH: 4th

3. GWS GIANTS (60pts, 111.7%)

GWS will want Fremantle to take down Port to finish second but if they lose and Geelong win big over the Eagles, the Giants will play their cross-town rival Sydney in the first qualifying final at the SCG.

LOWEST FINISH: 4th

4. GEELONG (56pts, 107.7%)

The Cats have a strong record of thrashing visiting West Coast teams and if that continues they could avoid the Swans in week one of the finals and could even finish second if GWS and Port both lose. If the Cats suffer a shock loss in Geelong they could finish as low as eighth. The Saints’ loss in round 23 has made their top-four finish chances harder to achieve but not impossible.

LOWEST FINISH: 8th

5. BRISBANE LIONS (54pts, 121.6%)

They endured a heartbreaking loss to Collingwood in last year’s grand final and a similar style of loss to the Pies last week has left the Lions fighting to secure hosting rights for an elimination final. They should defeat Essendon in their final game and if West Coast upset Geelong, then Brisbane could even sneak into the top four.

But if they lose and the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues all win they will be travelling to Melbourne for their sudden death final. If the Dockers also win, the Lions could be out altogether — but Freo would have to win big.

LOWEST FINISH: 9th

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (52pts, 123.8%)

When you get to the Dogs, things get very interesting. Featuring in the match of the round against GWS, if they win they play finals. But if they lose and the Hawks, Blues and Dockers win they are out and will rue their recent loss to the Crows after dominating the AFL over the last two months. If the Cats and Lions lose the Bulldogs could finish as high as fourth. If the Hawks win against the Roos, which is highly likely, but Carlton loses to St Kilda then the Bulldogs could finish sixth and host an elimination final.

LOWEST FINISH: 9th

7. HAWTHORN (52pts, 111.8%)

The AFL’s dark horses could in theory finish as high as fourth if the Cats, Lions and Bulldogs all lose. But they could miss September action if North Melbourne rain on their parade and the Blues and Dockers win.

LOWEST FINISH: 9th

8. CARLTON (52 pts, 110.7%)

The Blues put West Coast to the sword and will be looking to do the same to the giant-killing Saints. If they win comfortably and surpass Hawthorn on percentage (one per cent separates the sides now) they could host an elimination final instead of most likely travelling to Brisbane to play the Lions. If Fremantle win and the Blues lose they are out.

LOWEST FINISH: 9th

9. FREMANTLE (50pts, 113.7%)

Pretty simple for the Dockers, they have to win and hope one of the teams above them by four points or fewer loses.

10. COLLINGWOOD (48 pts, 100.1%)

The reigning premiers would need a massive win over the Demons, and we mean massive, to play in September. They would then need one of the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues to lose plus the Dockers also being defeated.