Melbourne Cup: Bookies wary of ‘roughies’ as heavens open over Flemington
Australia’s biggest bookmakers are glued to the controversial new BOM website as Melbourne battens down for a potential “class killing” drenching ahead of the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Tuesday.
As a significant weather front continues to hammer the world-famous headquarters of Victorian racing, the amount of rain expected is already causing significant movements in betting markets as punters eye off runners with wet form.
The fancied runners in early markets, including race favourite Half Yours, are all expected to cope with the effects of the deluge, but the impending track downgrade has seen runners at long odds continue to firm.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.“The rain will be a factor no doubt and although we are at a Good 3 track rating now, we expect that to be downgraded with further shifts in the market tonight (Monday),” Ladbrokes spokesperson Nick Quinn told The Nightly.
“From a Cup perspective, runners at the top of the market all have form on rain-affected tracks, but so do some of the runners at much longer odds who may not have the same form coming into the race.
“What we will see is punters looking for value ... a better price now that the rain has come.”
The Bureau of Meteorology website currently shows Melbourne copping consistent rainfall throughout Monday, all day Tuesday and into Wednesday, with 20mm - 40mm expected on Monday evening.
A favourable barrier draw (8) and the extra precipitation has superstar hoop Jamie Melham brimming with confidence leading into the ‘race that stops a nation’.
Melham will partner five-year-old gelding Half Yours who cemented his spot as race favourite following a Caulfield Cup demolition-job victory in the traditional lead-up to the Melbourne Cup.
“I’m going to do the rain dance on Monday,” Melham told ABC radio on the weekend.
“We’re apparently getting a hell of a lot of rain, which is going to suit this horse.
“He loves it. He swims through it. He doesn’t need it, but he definitely appreciates it.”
Half Yours is untried at the 3200m Melbourne Cup distance, but they way he went to the line over 2400m at Caulfield indicates the extra ground should not prove a concern.
“I learned a lot from him in the Caulfield Cup. I had to get going too soon, I think, for the horse,” Melham said.
“He made a good 500-600m run, and when I won on him in the Naturalism [Stakes], I only got out 300m before home, and he was very sharp.
“I think he’ll definitely get the trip if I can just find the rail, put him to sleep, and let that first wave of horses get past me and just wait for the second crack at it.”
Senior Trader at TAB, Tim Ryan, feels the rain will have plenty of punters thinking back to last year’s boilover when Knight’s Choice, trained by John Symonds and Sheila Laxon, stormed home to win at odds of $101.
“We are going to get plenty rain, but Flemington drains pretty well so hopefully it won’t be too heavy,” Ryan told The Nightly.
“Most of the favourites including Half Yours and Buckaroo should handle it as we head to a borderline soft/heavy track.”
The weight of money invested in wagering pools and interest in the Melbourne Cup around the globe always provides good value for fancied runners and roughies alike.
“The Melbourne Cup always brings different activity in the betting markets,” Ryan said.
“Punters always look for value and you only need to look at last year’s winner Knight’s Choice to realise it can happen.
“Many of our runners in this year’s race at odds of 100/1 are already firming up into 60/1 odds as the rain continues to fall.
“The wet track does make it more even. It can be a class killer in a lot of ways and that is why the markets begin to get tighter.”
Connections of Japanese runner Chevalier Rose will be hoping the drainage system does its job, as their hopes continue to fade with every raindrop that lands on Royal Flemington.
“Hopefully we will be OK and it won’t be too bad,” Nick Quinn added.
“The Flemington course with that drainage system is just like my hair, every drop that lands on it runs off pretty quickly.”
