Doomsday Clock set closer to 85 seconds to midnight: Why theoretical catastrophe could be near

Atomic scientists have set their Doomsday Clock closer than ever ‍to midnight, citing aggressive behaviour by nuclear powers Russia, China and the United States, fraying nuclear arms control, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and AI worries among factors driving risks for global disaster.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on Tuesday set the clock to 85 seconds before midnight, the theoretical point of annihilation. That is four seconds closer than it was set in 2025.

The Chicago-based nonprofit created the clock in 1947 during the Cold War tensions that ⁠followed World War II to warn the public about how close humankind was to destroying the world.

The scientists voiced concern about threats of unregulated integration of artificial intelligence into military systems and its potential misuse in aiding the creation of biological threats, as well as AI’s role in spreading disinformation globally. They also noted continuing challenges posed by climate change.

“Of course, the Doomsday Clock is about global risks, and what we have seen is a global failure in leadership,” nuclear policy expert Alexandra Bell, the Bulletin’s president and CEO, told Reuters.

“No matter the government, a shift towards neo-imperialism and an Orwellian approach to governance will only serve to push the clock toward midnight.”

It was the ‌third time in the past four years that the scientists moved the clock closer to midnight.

“In terms of nuclear risks, nothing in 2025 trended in the right direction,” Bell said.

“Longstanding diplomatic frameworks are under duress ‍or collapsing, the threat of explosive nuclear testing has returned, proliferation concerns are growing, and there were three military operations taking place under the shadow of nuclear weapons and the associated escalatory threat. The risk of nuclear use is unsustainably and unacceptably high.”

Ms Bell pointed to Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, the US and Israeli bombing of Iran and border clashes between India and Pakistan. Ms Bell also cited continuing tensions in Asia including on the Korean Peninsula and China’s threats toward Taiwan, as well as rising tensions in the Western Hemisphere since US President Donald Trump returned to office 12 months ago.

The last remaining nuclear arms pact between the US and Russia, the New START treaty, expires on February 5. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed in September that the two countries agree to observe for another ‌year the limits set under the pact, which caps each side’s number of deployed nuclear warheads at 1550. Mr Trump has not formally responded. Western security analysts are divided about the wisdom of accepting Mr Putin’s offer.

Mr Trump in October ordered the US military to restart the process for testing nuclear weapons after a halt of more than three decades. No nuclear power, other than North Korea most recently in 2017, has conducted explosive nuclear testing in more than a quarter century.

No country would benefit ‍more from a full-scale return to such testing than China, given its continued push to expand its nuclear arsenal, according to Bell, a former senior official at the US State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence and Stability.