How Hunter Biden's guilty verdict effects US President Joe Biden in the race for re-election

Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict Tuesday, coupled with a trial that resurfaced dark moments in the Biden family history, could weigh heavily on the president in the final months of a gruelling re-election campaign, many of the president’s allies privately worry.

The political impact is less clear, and even some Republicans on Tuesday dismissed Hunter’s offence - lying on a gun purchase form six years ago - as relatively minor.

GOP leaders still hope the verdict paints the Bidens as lawbreakers and offsets Donald Trump’s own criminal conviction. Democratic strategists argued, meanwhile, that voters are unlikely to hold the president accountable for his son’s behaviour.

But the personal toll on a president who has already suffered the deaths of two children and grappled for years with his son’s addiction could be far more severe.

“What normal human being would not be torn apart to see his family’s anguish played out in a courtroom in front of the world?” said David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama.

“And to see people you love having to testify, not just your son, but your daughters-in-law and your granddaughter, all reliving the most painful moments of their lives - who wouldn’t be shattered by that?”

Axelrod added: “I don’t think voters are going to hold Biden accountable for his son’s addiction or his son’s misbehavior. But I think the real question is the toll it takes on him and his family.”

The dramatic and often sordid trial, in which prosecutors argued that Hunter was abusing illegal drugs in 2018 despite declaring on the form that he was not, played out in Biden’s hometown of Wilmington, Del., a few blocks from Biden re-election headquarters.

Two of President Biden’s former daughters-in-law - Kathleen Buhle, Hunter’s ex-wife, and Hallie Biden, Beau Biden’s widow - testified for the prosecution. Naomi Biden, Hunter’s daughter and Biden’s granddaughter, testified for the defence.

The president released a statement Tuesday in support of his son, shortly before speaking at a gun-control event.

“As I said last week, I am the president, but I am also a Dad,” the statement said.

“Jill and I love our son, and we are so proud of the man he is today. So many families who have had loved ones battle addiction understand the feeling of pride seeing someone you love come out the other side and be so strong and resilient in recovery.”

The president, who has stressed his determination to avoid any sense that he was improperly influencing a case brought by his own Justice Department, was largely absent from the trial itself.

But his family members were such a frequent presence that prosecutors urged the jury Monday not to allow them to sway the case.

“All of this is not evidence,” prosecutor Leo Wise said during closing arguments, waving his hand at a packed courtroom that included first lady Jill Biden, who attended almost every day of the trial. “People sitting in the gallery are not evidence.”

The president did travel to his home in Wilmington several times as the trial unfolded. He was there on the first day of the trial before leaving for an official visit to France, and he returned Sunday after coming back to the United States.

After the verdict was reached Tuesday, the White House unexpectedly announced that Biden would travel to Wilmington that afternoon, before he is set to leave Wednesday for a summit in Italy.

The daily White House briefing, usually held by press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, was also cancelled at the last minute Tuesday.

Hunter Biden was convicted Tuesday on all counts, as jurors accepted prosecutors’ assertions that he had stated falsely on the federal gun purchasing form that he was not using or addicted to illegal drugs, and that he had then unlawfully possessed the gun for 11 days.

For months, House Republicans have been investigating Hunter and the Biden family more broadly, arguing that Hunter improperly benefited from his father’s position as vice president. That investigation has largely stalled.

On Tuesday, several Republicans said that while they continue to believe Hunter Biden has committed financial wrongdoing, the gun offence is minor at best.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a Trump loyalist who has frequently attacked Hunter Biden, dismissed the outcome of the case.

“The Hunter Biden gun conviction is kinda dumb tbh,” Gaetz wrote on X, using a shorthand for “to be honest.”

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), another staunchly conservative lawmaker, posted on X, “Hunter might deserve to be in jail for something, but purchasing a gun is not it.”

He added, “There are millions of marijuana users who own guns in this country, and none of them should be in jail for purchasing or possessing a firearm against current laws.”

Some Democrats said that since American families of all stripes have been hurt by addiction, they might be sympathetic to Hunter Biden’s battle with substance abuse.

President Biden has expressed pride in Hunter’s newfound stability, including his marriage to his second wife, Melissa Cohen-Biden.

But more challenges are in store, especially since the president has said he would not pardon his son. That means Hunter Biden faces sentencing, including the possibility of jail time.

Given his status as a first-time offender guilty of a non-violent crime, his legal team is hoping for a more lenient sentence.

In addition, Hunter Biden faces another trial, this one for alleged tax evasion, in September.

It is no secret among President Biden’s close advisers that his son’s state of mind is of deep concern to him.

Biden’s aides have often expressed reluctance to speak with the president about his son’s problems. Some advisers in the past have tried to limit Hunter’s public appearances, which has angered Hunter and those close to him.

The president has a long history of attempting to keep his son close. When news broke years ago that Hunter had been discharged from the Navy Reserve for cocaine use, Joe Biden responded with a quick message to his family.

“Good as it could be,” he wrote, in an email verified by The Washington Post. “Time to move on. Love Dad.”

By Hunter’s own account, including in his memoir, the president has offered his son unconditional love, coming to his door at times to tell him he needs help and repeatedly telling him he loves him no matter what.

President Biden checks in with his son daily, making phone calls, and when they go unanswered, sending texts, according to the president’s friends and associates, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Biden’s advisers are also keenly aware of the tragedy he has already suffered. In 1972, his wife and baby daughter were killed in a car crash shortly after he was elected to the Senate for the first time. In 2015, his son Beau, who was then 46, died of brain cancer.

“To a guy who’s already experienced great loss and tragedy, this is another heavy brick on the load,” Axelrod said. “And it’s going to take enormous strength to carry that load, given all the other bricks that are on there of the presidency and being a candidate.”

Some Democrats and Republicans questioned whether the case would have been brought if Hunter were not the president’s son.

“I think any average American who’s done their taxes like Hunter Biden would have probably faced prosecution,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told HuffPost recently.

“However, I don’t think the average American would have been charged with the gun thing. I don’t see any good coming from that.”

The Trump campaign, like other Republicans, sought to focus Tuesday not on the conviction but instead on money that Hunter Biden earned from foreign business dealings.

“This trial has been nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family, which has raked in tens of millions of dollars from China, Russia and Ukraine,” Karoline Leavitt, the national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said in a statement.

While Hunter often benefited from his family name throughout his career as a businessman, no substantial evidence has emerged that Joe Biden took an active role or profited from those deals.

Hunter’s allies say he is now trying to get past his battles with addiction, in part by admitting to the wrongs he has committed and making amends for them.

His 2021 memoir, “Beautiful Things,” was a confessional in some ways, one prosecutors seized on during the trial. In recent months, Hunter Biden has adopted a more public profile as he pushes back against Republican investigations.

September’s tax trial, like the one that just concluded, is being spearheaded by special counsel David Weiss, and it could similarly yield embarrassing moments for Hunter and the Biden family.

In that proceeding, slated to take place in Los Angeles, prosecutors are expected to outline various ways Hunter was spending his money - much of it, the indictment says, going to “drugs, escorts and girlfriends, luxury hotels and rental properties, exotic cars, clothing, and other items of a personal nature, in short, everything but his taxes.”

Hunter’s lawyers say he repaid his taxes in full three years ago and contend that, as in the gun case, prosecutors would not have brought the case against an ordinary citizen.

That trial is scheduled to begin Sept. 5 - exactly two months before Election Day.