Israel election 2026: Israelis prepare to pass judgement on Benjamin Netanyahu’s wars

JERUSALEM: Israelis will pass judgment next week on Benjamin Netanyahu at an election that has become a referendum on whether one of the great survivors of Middle East politics should be held responsible for the October 7 attack in 2023 that continues to traumatise the country.

Polls show Mr Netanyahu’s right wing Likud Party running second of 11 parties in what is likely to be a hung parliament, a result that would give the man known as “Bibi” a shot at his seventh election victory.

Mr Netanyahu is almost as divisive within Israel as he is around the world. While many Israelis despair of the huge human, economic and diplomatic costs of his wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, others fear the left wing coalition amassed against him is more likely to cut a deal with Palestinian groups, emboldening Israel’s enemies.

“Half the voters will think that person elected is going to realise their nightmares,” Tal Becker, a Israeli commentator and former peace negotiator, said this week. “We have a society that’s deadlocked.”

Mr Netanyahu’s main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israeli Defence Force who lost a son to the fighting in Gaza. In a sign of how the October 7 attacks hardened opposition to the Palestinians, Mr Eisenkot rejects a two-state solution and has said anyone advocating for a separate Palestinian nation is “delusional” or “simply crazy”.

But Mr Eisenkot’s less aggressive Palestinian policies have allowed Mr Netanyahu to run a scare campaign alleging his opponent might allow the creation of a Palestinian state in a coalition with Arab parties.

Mr Netanyahu’s campaign slogan is “Right or Palestine”, which suggests only Lukid can protect Israel from a Palestinian state.

Because Israeli MPs are elected through proportional representation, a similar system to the Australian Senate, a parliamentary majority is almost impossible to achieve.

Both main blocs may have to strike agreements with extremist parties to form government, allowing Lukid to argue the opposition will co-operate with Arab parties even though they have said they won’t.

‘Really rotten’

The country of 10 million remains traumatised by the October 7, 2023, invasion of Southern Israel.

Many Israelis blame Mr Netanyahu for intelligence failures before the attack and the slow response by Israel defence forces as Hamas fighters went house-to-house in border villages killing Jews and others.

They say Mr Netanyahu should have appointed a royal commission-like inquiry into the attacks, and hasn’t because it would likely expose failings by his government, which underplayed the threat from Hamas and was more focused on Iran before October 7.

Mr Netanyahu’s detractors include Geoffrey Majzner, a 63-year-old grandfather who hid for a day in his house in Be’eri Kibbutz while Hamas fighters killed his neighbours. They included his sister, Galit Carbone, the only Australian victim of the attack.

“Something is really rotten here in Israel if this guy can be re-elected,” Mr Majzner told Australian journalists near the site of the attack this week. “I think something is really f...ed up in this country if that is going to happen.”

But Mr Netanyahu retains considerable support, including from US President Donald Trump, who endorsed him on Sunday as the best person to continue the fight against Iran, which has long promised Israel’s destruction.

“If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to the work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so,” he wrote on his TruthSocial web site.

Whether Mr Trump’s opinion will have any effect is unclear, but many Israelis believe the aggressive military response in Gaza — despite being condemned around the world — was necessary to remove the threat from Hamas and deter future attacks from Israel’s many enemies.

With most of the Gaza Strip under Israeli control, almost-daily rocket attacks from Hamas have ended, meaning residents of southern Israel no longer have to check they are 15 seconds away from shelter when a rocket alert is sounded.

This week, explosions and gunfire could be heard coming from Gaza by Australian journalists nearby, although it was unclear if they were related to fighting.

An opinion poll on the third anniversary of the invasion found that fewer than half of Israelis believe they are safer than before October 7, and residents near Gaza still describe anxiety, trauma and a lack of feeling safe.

Tuesday’s vote for the 120 Knesset seats will take most of the night to count, Israeli officials say, but negotiations to form a government will take much longer if no side wins an immediate majority.