Kevin Rudd says China is prepared to escalate its aggressive military action to deter US containment

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has told a US audience that China is prepared to escalate its aggressive military action in an attempt to deter US containment and is not worried that such behaviour could trigger a small or even larger war.

And he warned that Xi Jinping’s new doctrine of national self-sufficiency and securitisation of Chinese economic policy appeared to be in anticipation of international sanctions in the event of a major Taiwan contingency.

He said Xi was growing more confident and prepared to embrace more risk because the Chinese President believed that: “China was now an irresistible force with the strong winds of history at its back.”

Australia’s Ambassador to the United States sounded the warning delivering the 2024 George F Kennan Lecture Series to the National Defense University in Washington DC.

In a transcript of his 8200-word oration linked on the Australian US Embassy’s official website and posted on his ambassadorial social media account, Mr Rudd insisted he was speaking in his capacity as a China scholar and not as a representative of the Australian government.

He told the audience that: “China … appears prepared to escalate militarily in order to achieve its political objective of deterrence – without worrying too much that even a ‘small war’ could lead to the much larger war it is seeking to deter in the first place.”

“This is potentially dangerous.”

Mr Rudd, author of The Avoidable War which argues how to prevent great power competition from spilling over into conflict, said this would likely involve showing strength through ’surgical’ military strikes, skirmishes, or success in ‘small battles’.

“Cautionary strikes in the name of deterrence are to be directed at targets that are ’relatively isolated and easy to fight, and will not harm the people,’ he said.

“This appears to suggest lower-grade skirmishes – but still involving the active use of armed force – to demonstrate resolve in a range of contingencies within, say the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.”

China has increased its military action over and around Taiwan ever since then US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited the island in 2022.

Its Coast Guard has been regularly ramming and using water cannons to harass Filipino vessels around the Second Thomas Shoal, an artificial reef in the South China Sea that China claims belongs to it, despite an international ruling declaring that it sits inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

He added that Xi was growing more confident and had a greater risk appetite, out of the belief that showing Chinese military force would deter its rival – the United States.

But Mr Rudd said because the US and China viewed the concept of deterrence differently, China’s attempts to demonstrate its muscularity could provoke and not deter the US.

“As a result, this is likely to encourage China to move more seamlessly up the escalation ladder in a manner that the US would see as incompatible with its own notion of deterrence,” Mr Rudd said.

“This risk may be compounded by Xi’s underlying sense of ideological self-confidence and secular missionary zeal.

“This is made worse by China’s embrace of the idea of using ‘small war to constrain large war’ as a further exercise in effective deterrence.”

He claimed China would have already taken control of the democratic self-ruled island of Taiwan, had it not been for the deterrence posed by the United States and its historical willingness to enter conflict including in Europe and the Pacific in the Second World War as well as both Gulf Wars.

Taiwan’s Secretary General of the National Security Council Joseph Wu said on the weekend that US and broader international support would also help deter China from using force to unify the island with the mainland.

“We have to assume that China may attack at some point and when that happens we want to be ready,” Wu told the GLOBSEC forum in Prague.

He said this was why Taiwan was trying to overhaul its military and societal resilience programs, including stockpiling resources and food.

“We need to be ready, we need to stay resilient and we think that is the best way to deter against the Chinese aggression,” he said.

“If the Chinese think that they can take Taiwan over within a few hours – I think it’s very dangerous.

“We will defend ourselves to the very end.”

But he said war should not happen at all and that combined international strength could deter any conflict.

On Thursday, Japan and Australia’s defence and foreign ministers agreed to bolster civilian maritime cooperation with the Philippine Coast Guard.

Japan’s Defence Minister Kihara Minoru said that Australia, the US and Japan would be able to “practically build our deterrence and the response capabilities.”

Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Policy Strategic Institute said that while it was not feasible for Mr Rudd to be speaking about China in any role other than his full-time job, his intervention was significant.

“He’s the ambassador full time — but that’s why his speech is so important as it’s a realistic judgment of the challenges posed by Beijing,” Mr Bassi told The Nightly.

“And it is vital that democratic governments inform the public of the reality of the threat and not hide it through generalised prose relating to misconceptions of stability that simply don’t exist.

He said Beijing had made clear its objectives for the region and was not afraid to use military force to achieve them.

“We have seen a slow escalation of not just tension but physical intimidation against the Philippines and last week China actually breached Japan’s territorial airspace.

“While tardy — Australia joining Japan at yesterday’s 2+2 ministerial meeting to condemn Beijing for the recent incursions was so important.

“Holding Beijing to account cannot be left to the US.”