Hamas to elect first leader since Israel killed Yahya Sinwar: Meshaal, Al-Hayya emerge as frontrunners

Hamas is expected to elect a new leader this month, two sources in the group say, filling the role left vacant ‍since Israel killed Yahya Sinwar in 2024 despite concerns that a successor could suffer the same fate.

Khalil Al-Hayya and Khaled Meshaal are seen as frontrunners for the helm at a vital moment for the militant Islamist group, battered by two years of war ignited by its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and facing international demands to disarm.

Both men reside in Qatar and sit ⁠on a five-man council that has run Hamas since Israel killed Sinwar, a mastermind of the October 7 attack. His predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated by Israel while on a visit to Iran in 2024.

The election process has already begun, the sources told Reuters. The leader is chosen in a secret ballot by Hamas’ Shoura Council, a 50-member body that includes Hamas members in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and exile.

A Hamas spokesperson declined to comment.

The sources said a deputy leader will also be elected to replace Saleh Al-Arouri, who was ‌killed by an Israeli air strike in Lebanon in 2024.

Sources close to Hamas said it was determined to conclude the vote, though some preferred an extension of collective leadership.

Hamas watchers regard Meshaal ‍as part of a pragmatic wing with good ties to Sunni Muslim countries, and Hayya, the group’s lead negotiator, as part of a camp that deepened its relations with Iran.

Hamas faces some of the toughest challenges since it was founded in 1987. While fighting has largely abated in Gaza since the US-brokered ceasefire in October, Israel still holds almost half the coastal enclave, attacks continue, and conditions for Gaza’s two million people remain dire.

On Tuesday, a rainstorm swept across the Gaza Strip, flooding hundreds of tents, collapsing homes sheltering displaced families and killing at least six people, local health authorities said.

Hamas has also drawn criticism within Gaza because of the heavy toll inflicted by the war, with much of the enclave reduced to ruins and more than 71,000 people killed, according to Gaza health authorities.

Hamas-led militants killed some 1200 people and abducted 251 ‌others in the October 7 cross-border assault on Israel.

US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan for Gaza demands Hamas disarm and foresees the enclave being run by a technocratic Palestinian administration overseen by an international body called the Board of Peace.

Hamas has so far refused to disarm, saying the question of armed resistance is a matter for wider debate among ‍Palestinian factions and that it would be ready to surrender its weapons to a future Palestinian state, an outcome Israel has ruled out.

Hamas is designated as a terrorist organisation by Western powers including the United States.

Born in Gaza, Hayya was among Hamas leaders targeted by an Israeli air strike on Qatar in September.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later expressed regret to the emir of Qatar - a US ally - in a three-way call with Trump and affirmed Israel would not conduct such an attack again in the future, the White House said at the time.

Meshaal previously led Hamas for almost two decades. Israeli agents tried to assassinate him in Jordan in 1997 by injecting him with poison.

His relations with Iran were strained in 2012 when he distanced Hamas from Tehran’s Syrian ally, the now-ousted President Bashar al-Assad, early in the Arab Spring uprisings.

Analyst Reham Owda said there were limited ‍differences between Hayya and Meshaal over the conflict with Israel but believed Meshaal had better chances as he could “market (Hamas) internationally and help rebuild its capabilities”.