Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed? Iran signals shipping routes as ceasefire uncertainty grows
We have a two-week ceasefire, and a 10-point framework that the US and Iran say is workable to prevent further conflict, but some say the Strait of Hormuz is closed again already. Here’s what we know.
Uncertainty is mounting over whether the Strait of Hormuz has fully reopened, with conflicting signals from Iran, the United States and shipping sources creating fresh anxiety across global energy markets.
Despite a tentative ceasefire agreement aimed at stabilising the Middle East conflict, the crucial oil chokepoint appears to remain only partially operational, with some vessels still facing restrictions or requiring permission from Iranian authorities to pass through the waterway.
Iranian state-linked media have suggested shipping traffic has again slowed following renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon, with reports that tanker movements through the Strait have dropped significantly compared to pre-war levels.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.Before the conflict, more than 100 vessels were transiting the Strait daily, but recent data suggests only a handful of ships have been allowed through under the current conditions.
Why the confusion?
The confusion comes as Israel launched a wave of strikes targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, further complicating the fragile ceasefire environment and raising questions about how broadly the truce applied across the region.
Israeli officials have maintained that Lebanon is not included in the agreement, signalling the possibility of continued military operations despite broader diplomatic efforts to pause hostilities.
There is also a large amount of uncertainty over whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz, when it is open, would come with a hefty price tag. Some sources say the 10 point agreement used to secure the two week ceasefire includes the condition for Iran, and Oman, to be paid for any use.
Some say this figure could be between $2 million to $3.5 million a trip, something that the White House says it will not be paying.
What the White House is saying
In Washington, the White House has acknowledged mixed signals regarding maritime activity in the Strait, noting a gap between Iran’s public messaging and what US officials are hearing through diplomatic channels, BBC reported.
“We have seen an uptick in traffic in the Strait,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
“It’s something we are monitoring minute by minute, hour by hour.”
Ms Leavitt also confirmed that US President Donald Trump had been briefed on Iran’s claims that access to the Strait had been restricted, warning that any attempt to block the critical shipping route would be unacceptable.
“This is a fragile truce,” she said. “Ceasefires are fragile by nature … We understand things take time.”
Mr Trump told PBS NewsHour that Lebanon was not included in the deal due to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
When Mr Trump was asked about Israel’s latest strikes, he said, “That’s a separate skirmish.”
Israel has said the agreement does not extend to its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah, although mediator Pakistan said it does.
Israel’s military called its largest coordinated strike in the current war, hitting more than 100 Hezbollah targets within 10 minutes in Beirut, southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley.
There was no sign of Hezbollah launching strikes against Israel at this time.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained at an effective standstill in the 24 hours since Iran conditionally lifted its blockade on the critical shipping lane.
Only seven ships appear to have made it through, according to available traffic data.
Data shows that three of the three bulk carriers were identified as Chinese-owned and three were Greek-owned.
The seventh vessel was a Chinese-owned oil and chemical tanker.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) navy has reportedly released a map outlining alternative pathways for vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Iranian Students’ News Agency.
The routes are believed to help ships avoid potential naval mines and other security risks in the area. However, uncertainty remains over whether normal transit has fully resumed, with the status of the Strait still unclear despite the agreed two-week ceasefire.
Iran pushes back
Iranian officials have pushed back, accusing both the US and Israel of undermining the agreement through continued military activity in Lebanon. Parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said the proposed framework for negotiations had already been compromised.
“The ‘very workable basis for which to negotiate’ has been openly and clearly violated,” Mr Ghalibaf said, adding that further talks would be difficult under current conditions.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed those concerns, saying the next move rests with Washington.
“The US must choose - ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” he said.
Reports from sea
Shipping companies say they have been warned not to cross the Strait without permission or risk having their ships destroyed.
UK shipbroker SSY confirmed to the BBC that ships in the Gulf had received this warning:
“Attention all vessels. Attention all vessels. Attention all vessels in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. This is the IRGC Navy Station. Transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and you need permission from the IRGC before sailing through the strait. Any vessel trying to travel into the sea will be targeted and destroyed.”
For now, the status of one of the world’s most important energy routes remains uncertain, with traders, governments and shipping companies closely watching whether the ceasefire holds and whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal operations.
