THE WASHINGTON POST: Israel says it limited attack on Iran, hoping to ease tensions for now

JERUSALEM - Israel’s first open attack on Iran targeted missile production facilities and air defense systems, the military said Saturday, tempering fears of a broader foray but giving Israeli aircraft the ability to operate more freely in Iranian skies as the region entered a new phase of escalation.

“Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israeli military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said in a statement after the attack concluded. The remarks signalled Israel’s willingness to strike Iran in the future, even as Israeli officials said the attacks were tailored to minimize casualties and allow Iran to deny major damage.

The exact scope of the strikes, carried out by Israeli warplanes over four hours, was still unclear. Israel launched the attack in retaliation for the barrage of ballistic missiles Iran fired at Israeli territory earlier this month - the latest exchange between two of the region’s most powerful militaries.

“It looks like they didn’t hit anything, other than military targets,” President Joe Biden, speaking to reporters in Philadelphia, said of the Israeli strikes. “I hope that this is the end.”

Around 20 targets were hit, according to an Israeli official who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified matters. There were no reports of mass casualties, although Iranian state media said four soldiers were killed, citing Iran’s armed forces.

Military analysts and diplomats who braced for a more devastating blow against Tehran expressed hope on Saturday that tensions could ease. Iranian officials and state media were also quick to downplay the damage, saying the impact was minimal and that some military sites were already undergoing repairs.

Ahead of the strikes, Biden administration pushed Israel, publicly and behind the scenes, to avoid a massive response that could further inflame a region already shattered by two raging wars in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Israel signalled in the run-up to Saturday’s attack that it was planning limited strikes, with officials saying they took oil fields and nuclear sites off the target list.

But the military has already opened the way for more direct action against Iran, including by eliminating much of the senior leadership of Tehran’s ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. In Gaza, it has decimated the military capabilities of Hamas, which has also received Iranian support and funding. The two conflicts have challenged Iran’s deterrence capabilities.

“It appears that the Israeli strike achieved a few goals: The most important components of Iran’s air defences were taken out, and storage facilities for hundreds of missiles were struck,” said Jonathan Conricus, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who noted that a thorough evaluation would depend on satellite analysis in coming days. “Tehran, with all of its regime targets and sensitive infrastructure, might now be totally exposed to future Israeli strikes.”

Israeli officials said privately that Saturday’s operation was designed to deliver a deterrent blow, as well as provide Iran an off-ramp from wider conflict. “We wanted to give the Iranians a chance not to escalate any further,” said a person briefed on Israel’s plans.

But some Israeli military experts said the strikes were probably more constrained because of U.S. political pressure ahead of the Nov. 5 election, after which Israel could act more decisively.

The “historic” opportunity for deeper strikes in Iran in the coming months is not one Israel is likely to miss, said Amir Avivi, a reserve brigadier general in the Israeli military and former deputy of the division overseeing the force’s readiness.

He said Israel’s strategic goal is to create a reality where “Iran won’t pose any threat” now or in the future. Israel’s conflict with Iran will probably continue for “many months,” he said. “What will happen, and when, has a lot to do with what is going to happen in the U.S.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s most powerful security institution, said attacks were launched on Tehran, in the north, Khuzestan province in the southwest and Ilam province in the west, on the border with Iraq.

Some reports suggested the strikes were carried out using Iraqi and Syrian airspace, with Syria’s state news agency reporting “barrages of missiles” fired at military sites early Saturday morning. Experts said Israel could have aimed at Syrian air defences to clear the way for Israeli fighter jets.

In a statement, Iran’s armed forces said strikes on several military and radar sites came from Iraqi airspace, about 60 miles from the border with Iran using “long-range airborne missiles.”

The attacks present a complex dilemma for Tehran, which has vowed to respond to any substantial attack, according to Danny Citrinowicz, senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

“The ball is now in the Iranian leadership’s court,” he said. “While Israel did not target nuclear or oil facilities, it carried out a broad, significant strike that challenges the image of Iran’s leadership.”

White House officials, speaking soon after the attacks were complete, were hopeful that Israel had found the right balance.

“The president and his national security team, of course, worked with the Israelis over recent weeks to encourage Israel to conduct a response that was targeted and proportional with low risk of civilian harm,” a senior administration official said, briefing reporters underground rules of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal calculations about the attack. “And that appears to have been precisely what transpired this evening.” The official said that the attack should reduce the “risk of further escalation.”

Israel alerted the White House before the attacks began Saturday, according to a U.S. official. Biden was briefed by national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other top officials throughout the attack, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had a direct conversation with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the official said.

The U.S. military did not participate in the strikes, but officials said Washington was prepared to provide direct assistance in the case of an Iranian counterattack. U.S. forces played a role in shooting down Iranian weapons fired at Israel in April, and more recently Biden has dispatched advanced air defense units to Israel.

“The coordination with the Americans was very tight,” said the person familiar with Israeli planning.

Still, the limited scope of the attacks was condemned by some Israeli politicians who had called for a much more significant assault. Many hard-liners, including former prime minister Naftali Bennett, had urged the government to use the attacks to take out Iran’s nuclear energy program.

“Not attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil reserves is a serious mistake. We missed an opportunity to weaken Iran’s potential of becoming a nuclear power for many years,” Tally Gotliv, a parliament member from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, posted on X.

Others, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, appeared emboldened by the attack. He described the strikes as an “opening blow” on X. “We have a historic obligation to remove the Iranian threat to destroy Israel,” he wrote.

Even if the damage was immediately visible, what the attacks did is give Israel an indication of Iran’s ability to respond to strikes as they happen, said Avivi, who advocates targeting the country’s nuclear facilities.

“This gives Israel a very good understanding that we can deal with them,” he said.

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Morris reported from Berlin. Michael Birnbaum in Washington and Susannah George in Dubai contributed to this report.

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https://washingtonpost.com/documents/036aa49d-a9d9-4084-891f-15442068a69f.pdf

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