Australia winter weather forecast 2026: Bureau predicts below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures

Australia is heading into a winter likely to be warmer than average, with below-average rainfall expected across large parts of the country, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest long-range outlook.

The Bureau says “rainfall is likely to be below average for most central, southern and eastern parts of Australia”, setting the tone for a drier winter across many populated regions including NSW, Victoria, South Australia and parts of Western Australia.

Despite the overall dry signal, the Bureau cautions that winter rain will still occur. “There is still a high chance of some rain with the typical winter rainfall across southern areas being 100 to 400mm around the coast and 25 to 100mm inland,” it said.

Temperatures are also expected to trend higher than usual nationwide, continuing a warmer pattern seen through autumn. The Bureau says “temperatures this winter are likely to be above average across most of Australia,” although cold snaps, frost and even snow remain possible.

On the climate drivers, the Bureau notes that conditions in the Pacific remain neutral for now, but “all models indicate El Niño is likely to develop this winter.” The climate pattern typically reduces rainfall across eastern and northern Australia, particularly from winter into spring, though the Bureau stresses that “no two El Niño events are the same.”

NSW, Victoria winter weather

For New South Wales and the ACT, winter rainfall is “likely to be below average for most”, while Victoria faces a similar outlook, with “winter rainfall likely to be below average for most of Victoria”.

Both states are also expected to experience above-average daytime and overnight temperatures.

Dry winter also likely in SA and WA

South Australia is forecast to see widespread dry conditions, with rainfall “likely to be below average for most of South Australia”.

In Western Australia, the South West Land Division is also expected to be drier than usual, with the Bureau warning of “an increased chance of unusually low rainfall across some parts of the state’s south-west.”

Queensland and the north

Queensland’s south and central regions are also tipped to be drier than average, although the far north may still see some rainfall, likely in small amounts due to the ongoing dry season.

The Northern Territory remains in its dry season, with below-average rainfall expected across inland and southern areas.

Tasmania mixed

Tasmania shows a split forecast, with “above average winter rainfall likely for parts of south-west Tasmania” but drier-than-average conditions in the east and north.

Fire risk and outlook

The Bureau also flagged increased fire risk in parts of NSW and Western Australia following recent dry conditions.

Conditions driving the risk differ between states. In NSW, prolonged dry weather across central and northern regions has heightened concern.

In Western Australia, a wetter-than-usual wet season in the northwest has led to increased vegetation growth, which is now expected to dry out over winter, raising the potential for fire activity.