El Niño: Climate pattern gathers strength, spells grim outlook for Aussie spring and summer ahead
Australia could be heading for a scorching spring and summer as one of the strongest El Niño events on record gathers strength.
Australia could be heading for a scorching spring and summer as one of the strongest El Niño events on record gathers strength.
The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared El Niño in June after ocean and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific aligned with the climate driver.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which can influence weather patterns around the world, including Australia.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.According to the bureau, Australia has experienced 27 El Niño events since 1900, but observations and forecast models suggest the current event could become one of the most intense ever recorded.
“El Niño has been underway since mid-June and continues to strengthen, with further intensification likely in the coming months,” the bureau’s website states.
Scientists monitor the strength of El Niño using the Niño 3.4 index, which measures how much warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Current readings indicate the 2026 event is strengthening rapidly and could reach unprecedented levels.
“The latest relative Niño3.4 index value for the week ending 26 July 2026 is +1.94 °C, well above the El Niño threshold (+0.80 °C) and warming by around 0.5 °C over the past fortnight,” BoM said in an update to its southern hemisphere monitoring on July 28.
“The strength of this El Niño, in addition to the typical life cycle of an El Niño, suggests this El Niño may persist into autumn 2027.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific.
“The majority of models indicate this event is likely to peak at levels among, or above, the highest observed since 1950.”
ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders said the tropical Pacific Ocean is warming at an extraordinary rate, feeding additional heat into the atmosphere that is already contributing to severe heatwaves and destructive wildfires across parts of Europe and North America.
Because the climate pattern has not yet reached its peak, due in summer, its influence on global weather is expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, increasing the risk of hotter conditions Down Under later this year.
The Bureau said El Niño events usually last between six and 12 months, but in “some rare cases” the climate pattern has persisted for up to two years. .
Although the Bureau warned the unpredictable nature of weather meant it was too early to know the full extent of the El Niño event’s impact on the coming months, it can cause extreme changes in temperatures.
“El Niño can increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days. A warming climate increases the likelihood of: hotter conditions, heatwaves - including marine heatwaves, fire weather, heavy rainfall and flooding events,” BoM said.
