Mining States drive foreign worker intake as migration numbers overtake pre-COVID levels with 25 per cent jump

More than 300,000 migrants arrived in Australia last year, but the annual intake was the slowest in more than three years despite being well above the pre-COVID average.

New Australian Bureau of Statistics population data showed 301,000 foreigners arrived in Australia on a permanent and long-term basis in 2025, when departures were factored in.

The refined figures released on Thursday marked the lowest annual growth pace since the year to June 2022, covering the COVID lockdowns period before Labor came to power and its first month in office.

Nonetheless, the figures reflect Treasury’s upwardly revised 295,000 influx predicted for 2025-26 in the May Budget papers, covering permanent arrivals such as skilled migrants and long-term residents staying in Australia for at least a year, including international students.

This net overseas migration forecast for the next financial year was 35,000 higher than the 260,000 net arrivals figure predicted just five months earlier in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which in itself was still above the pre-COVID average.

KPMG senior economist Terry Rawnsley said the big influx of skilled migrants to the resources-rich states of Queensland and Western Australia had driven much of the net overseas intake, which looks to be in line with revised Treasury Budget forecasts.

“The nation looks to have settled into a new normal level of net overseas migration of around 300,000 people per year, which is about 25 per cent higher than pre-COVID levels of around 250,000 per year,” Mr Rawnsley said.

“The Federal Budget assumes net overseas migration of 295,000 in 2025–26.

“At the halfway point of the financial year, arrivals total 145,000, suggesting migration is broadly on track to come close to that budget assumption.”

Under Labor, net overseas migration hit a record high of 548,800 in the year to September 2023 with Treasurer Jim Chalmers noting immigration had since fallen by 45 per cent.

But Dr Chalmers made the misleading claim migration was “surging when we came to office” even though the net overseas arrival figure of 170,900 for the year to June 2022 was much lower compared with subsequent quarterly population data since Labor came to office.

Treasury is forecasting net overseas migration will slow to 245,000 in 2026-27, which would still be higher than when the Coalition lost the May 2022 election, having closed Australia’s borders in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic.

“Migration was surging when we came to office and it has now moderated substantially,” Dr Chalmers said on Thursday.

“It was already down 45 per cent since its peak, and is lower again today.

“The facts clearly show that net overseas migration is coming down under Labor and Treasury is forecasting it to go even lower in the coming years.”

Shadow home affairs minister Jonno Duniam said the latest data still showed net overseas immigration, or NOM, was still too high under Labor.

“Labor keeps trying to tell Australians that the migration numbers are coming down, but the latest ABS figures again portray a very different story,” he said.

“A NOM figure of 301,000 is still far too high – particularly at a time when Australians are struggling to find a home, rents remain under extreme pressure and public infrastructure and services are badly stretched.”

Queensland’s population growth pace of 2 per cent was the strongest in Australia and well above the national average of 1.1 per cent, as 55,418 people moved there from interstate, on a net basis, as 23,430 came from overseas.

New South Wales took in 62,213 overseas migrants as 43,451 moved interstate to leave expensive Sydney, giving Australia’s most populated state a weaker overall population growth pace of 0.7 per cent.

Victoria’s growth pace of 1 per cent was below the national average as 55,631 overseas migrants moved in as 17,233 moved interstate.

Western Australia’s 1.3 per cent population growth level was above average, based on 10,791 interstate arrivals and 9502 overseas migrants.

South Australia’s 1 per cent population growth included a small interstate arrivals pace of 1025 residents and 12,077 migrants.